TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139853
Played Sep 16Finished
Arkadiusz Skupinski
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118114411411911
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 84 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 70.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 0–1 Kacper Kwiatkowski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1227 vs Kwiatkowski 1570
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 344 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 40% vs Kwiatkowski 80%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski -1 · Kwiatkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kwiatkowski)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 3.25 / Kwiatkowski 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13139853
Skupinski3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 38 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Kwiatkowski1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkupinski0wins
AwayKwiatkowski1wins
Kwiatkowski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkupinskiKwiatkowskiS − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match31.042.0−11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 410 vs 109 / 24539.3%44.5%161 / 410 vs 109 / 245Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiSkupinski 3.25/Kwiatkowski 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 19 · 16:35A. Skupinski31117671K. Kwiatkowski4291111113
A. Skupinski10
WSep 16 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.1011811113M. Machelski1.67611541LSep 16 · 17:20A. Skupinski3.5011811652A. Fomin1.28811911113WSep 16 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.30810130A. Skupinski3.401112153LSep 16 · 15:25A. Skupinski2.256740M. Baran1.571111113WSep 9 · 19:40K. Delikatny1.44411111352A. Skupinski2.63115915113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.251411113A. Skupinski3.7512990LSep 9 · 18:10A. Skupinski3.008911111A. Fomin1.3611117133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Skupinski4.5011114882A. Zmijewski1.17981111113WSep 9 · 15:50M. Baran1.4496111142A. Skupinski2.63111189113WSep 2 · 19:40A. Fomin1.22121181192A. Skupinski4.00145116113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 16 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.10911511113K. Kwiatkowski1.6711811312WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113
Upcoming Matches
A. Skupinski
Nothing scheduled
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.44M. Baran2.63—Sep 16 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57M. Machelski2.25—Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Skorupa1.91—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——Sep 17 · 21:05K. Kwiatkowski—A. Krezel——
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