TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139845
Starts 11:45 PMScheduled
Michal Machelski
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 34–6Last 10Lost last 3
Head to head
7 – 6
All 13 meetings · 53.8%
Last 10 · 4–6Split
Kacper Kwiatkowski
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 78–2Last 10Won last 7
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kwiatkowski beat Machelski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.10 / Kwiatkowski 1.67
TT Elite Series · #13139845
Machelski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 113 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back19% 37 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 118
Kwiatkowski1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 33 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayKwiatkowski6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski42.9%3 of 7
AwayKwiatkowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski7Kwiatkowski3n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S2Machelski5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Machelski5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Machelski4Kwiatkowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Machelski1Kwiatkowski5n = 6Kwiatkowski took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiKwiatkowskiM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.741.5+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 1129 vs 109 / 24436.9%44.7%416 / 1129 vs 109 / 244Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match WinnerForecastThe edge lives in the pick, one screen up
No price history
Neither player has a record at this price yet, so there is no odds range to publish.
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 15:50M. Machelski162950K. Kwiatkowski331111113
LAug 24 · 24:35M. Machelski4611991162K. Kwiatkowski47511119113
LAug 23 · 18:30M. Machelski42111110552K. Kwiatkowski48861211113
WAug 16 · 23:45M. Machelski45111112113K. Kwiatkowski37991451
WAug 16 · 15:50M. Machelski4513711143K. Kwiatkowski3811114121
LAug 13 · 01:30M. Machelski48117119102K. Kwiatkowski41611111123
LAug 12 · 19:30M. Machelski49111610572K. Kwiatkowski568141211113
LJul 30 · 24:35M. Machelski44116111242K. Kwiatkowski511311610113
WJul 29 · 18:30M. Machelski331111113K. Kwiatkowski229760
WJul 26 · 24:00M. Machelski49911117113K. Kwiatkowski4211921192
M. Machelski10
LSep 16 · 16:35M. Machelski2.25851171A. Fomin1.5711113113LSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950LSep 15 · 02:20M. Machelski2.807760A. Zmijewski1.391111113WSep 15 · 24:45J. Cyndera1.55119791M. Machelski2.3081111113WSep 15 · 24:00J. Michalik1.571151081M. Machelski2.2591112113LSep 14 · 23:10M. Machelski1.73512891A. Staniczek1.92111011113LSep 14 · 22:00M. Machelski3.45129551M. Warzecha1.23101111113WSep 11 · 05:05W. Stechly2.907780M. Machelski1.321111113LSep 11 · 03:55M. Machelski2.75131110101J. Zelezik1.3715612123WSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 16 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski1.4411157133M. Baran2.6361311111WSep 16 · 15:50K. Kwiatkowski1.671111113M. Machelski2.102950WAug 26 · 04:40M. Baran2.6541070K. Kwiatkowski1.411112113WAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel2.655990K. Kwiatkowski1.401111113WAug 26 · 01:55J. Zelezik1.709970K. Kwiatkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 01:10M. Brunner2.9510590K. Kwiatkowski1.341211113WAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik2.263750K. Kwiatkowski1.541111113LAug 25 · 22:40M. Baran2.3041111113K. Kwiatkowski1.55115981WAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel2.40116111052K. Kwiatkowski1.50811612113LAug 25 · 19:55J. Zelezik1.8591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113771
Upcoming Matches
M. Machelski
Sep 16 · 18:10M. Machelski2.10M. Baran1.67—Sep 16 · 18:55M. Machelski2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 16 · 19:40M. Machelski1.67A. Skupinski2.10—Sep 16 · 21:00M. Machelski2.25A. Fomin1.57—Sep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski2.20J. Skorupa1.61—Sep 17 · 01:00M. Machelski2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Sep 17 · 02:35M. Machelski2.10M. Baran1.67—
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 16 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 16 · 18:30K. Kwiatkowski1.33A. Skupinski3.25—Sep 16 · 20:05K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 16 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski1.67M. Lewczuk2.10—Sep 16 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski1.44M. Baran2.63—Sep 17 · 24:35K. Kwiatkowski1.80J. Skorupa1.91—Sep 17 · 02:10K. Kwiatkowski1.83A. Fomin1.83—Sep 17 · 17:55K. Kwiatkowski—A. Staniczek——Sep 17 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski—J. Michalik——Sep 17 · 19:55K. Kwiatkowski—J. Zelezik——
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