TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110785
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
131511610121012––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
1.37
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
131511610121012––
H2H Michal Machelski 12–10 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Machelski beat Zelezik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (67%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Machelski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1319 vs Zelezik 1424
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Zelezik 60%
Zelezik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Zelezik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +1 · Zelezik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Zelezik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.75 / Zelezik 1.37
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Zelezik)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13110785
Machelski2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Zelezik1.37
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 180 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it82% 139 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski7wins
AwayZelezik3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMachelski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski100%3 of 3
AwayZelezik42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski3Zelezik7n = 10Zelezik took 7 of 10
S2Machelski8Zelezik2n = 10Machelski took 8 of 10
S3Machelski6Zelezik4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S4Machelski2Zelezik3n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
S5Machelski4Zelezik1n = 5Machelski took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiZelezikM − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.7+2.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 1140 vs 369 / 68537.1%53.9%423 / 1140 vs 369 / 685Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikMachelski 2.75/Zelezik 1.37
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski—1112113J. Zelezik—81070
WAug 31 · 22:00M. Machelski—1111173J. Zelezik—79150
WAug 31 · 18:50M. Machelski—10111112113J. Zelezik—12561492
LAug 10 · 22:00M. Machelski—41070J. Zelezik—1112113
WJul 3 · 24:20M. Machelski—915117123J. Zelezik—1113311102
LJul 2 · 20:20M. Machelski—91181162J. Zelezik—119119113
WJun 29 · 22:25M. Machelski—911814113J. Zelezik—116111272
LJun 25 · 01:30M. Machelski—7670J. Zelezik—1111113
WJun 24 · 19:30M. Machelski—812116113J. Zelezik—111081142
WMay 16 · 22:00M. Machelski—1111113J. Zelezik—7470
M. Machelski10
WSep 11 · 02:45J. Michalik1.47111181082M. Machelski2.39881112113LSep 11 · 01:30M. Guzik1.2111119113M. Machelski3.92561171LSep 10 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511111211113M. Machelski3.4513814632LSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172WSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261LSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152
J. Zelezik10
LSep 11 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk1.561111113J. Zelezik2.197980WSep 11 · 01:10J. Michalik1.9011712972J. Zelezik1.805111011113WSep 10 · 23:30W. Stechly4.706840J. Zelezik1.131111113WSep 10 · 22:40M. Guzik1.387890J. Zelezik2.651111113LSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552LSep 10 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2811711113J. Zelezik3.15611591WSep 10 · 17:30J. Michalik2.101778121J. Zelezik1.60151111143WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771LSep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik1.36111121392A. Kubiak3.001361111113
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