TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109822
Played Sep 10Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131181214116113
Michal Machelski
Away
3.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:54 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
11131181214116113
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 67–21 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 21 of their 88 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Machelski beat Tkaczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (73%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-21 in 88
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 46 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1559 vs Machelski 1313
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Machelski 40%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 50% vs Machelski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk -1 · Machelski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.25 / Machelski 3.45
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13109822
Tkaczyk1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 399 of 577
Up 2–0, closes it94% 226 of 241
Up 1–0, closes it85% 311 of 365
Machelski3.45
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 117 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk8wins
AwayMachelski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk75%6 of 8
AwayMachelskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk8Machelski2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk8Machelski2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Tkaczyk7Machelski3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Tkaczyk5Machelski2n = 7Tkaczyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykMachelskiT − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.931.1+8.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1006 / 1510 vs 422 / 114066.6%37%1006 / 1510 vs 422 / 1140Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.25/Machelski 3.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk—11118962M. Machelski—671111113
WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Machelski—8640
WSep 3 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk—91111113M. Machelski—115331
WSep 3 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—1112123M. Machelski—610100
WAug 23 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk—11128113M. Machelski—4101171
WAug 23 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—11811143M. Machelski—9115121
WJul 24 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk—11118113M. Machelski—171161
WJul 23 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Machelski—8980
WJul 15 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—41111113M. Machelski—118791
LJul 15 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—119116102M. Machelski—311811123
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 10 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk2.205840D. Molenda1.571111113WSep 10 · 21:05H. Tkaczyk1.90131169113M. Guzik1.80115111182WSep 10 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk1.5510111111113J. Zelezik2.1912137552WSep 10 · 18:45J. Michalik2.6081111582H. Tkaczyk1.41118811113LSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.36111171082A. Krezel3.00961112113LSep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk1.29461131M. Brunner3.1011118113LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281
M. Machelski10
LSep 10 · 23:05J. Michalik1.53411119113M. Machelski2.3511661172WSep 10 · 21:55M. Machelski2.501112113J. Zelezik1.4781070LSep 10 · 20:45D. Molenda1.1011811113M. Machelski5.20511261LSep 10 · 19:30M. Guzik1.15411611113M. Machelski4.3511211762WSep 10 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk1.2311118962M. Machelski3.50671111113LSep 9 · 04:20M. Machelski2.0911811332M. Brunner1.68611311113WSep 9 · 03:05M. Machelski2.11117127113K. Delikatny1.66911101152WSep 9 · 01:55M. Machelski1.281311113A. Barton3.1511690LSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640LSep 8 · 23:55M. Machelski1.96115118122A. Krezel1.69211711143
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