TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093555
Played Sep 9Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411611118311––
Marian Brunner
Away
3.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:32 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
411611118311––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 44–16 Marian Brunner Marian Brunner has won 16 of their 60 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Brunner 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.29 (71%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-16 in 60
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 28 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1606 vs Brunner 1280
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 326 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Brunner 40%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Brunner 60%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk -1 · Brunner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.29 / Brunner 3.10
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093555
Tkaczyk1.29
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite69% won 392 of 567
Up 2–0, closes it94% 221 of 235
Up 1–0, closes it85% 304 of 357
Brunner3.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 48 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk9wins
AwayBrunner1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%7 of 7
AwayBrunner33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Brunner3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk4Brunner6n = 10Brunner took 6 of 10
S3Tkaczyk8Brunner2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S4Tkaczyk6Brunner2n = 8Tkaczyk took 6 of 8
S5Tkaczyk3Brunner0n = 3Tkaczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykBrunnerT − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.235.5+5.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykBrunnerBasisWin rate · lifetime1003 / 1503 vs 284 / 56966.7%49.9%1003 / 1503 vs 284 / 569Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.29/Brunner 3.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 21:30H. Tkaczyk—11611183M. Brunner—7117161
WSep 2 · 02:45H. Tkaczyk—1113113M. Brunner—41190
WSep 1 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk—5111110113M. Brunner—11981272
WAug 12 · 04:20H. Tkaczyk—641111113M. Brunner—11116822
WAug 11 · 18:45H. Tkaczyk—1141511123M. Brunner—811178102
LAug 5 · 02:45H. Tkaczyk—7211101M. Brunner—11114123
WAug 4 · 23:05H. Tkaczyk—11811123M. Brunner—8117101
WJul 29 · 01:55H. Tkaczyk—11911113M. Brunner—611811
WJul 28 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk—1111113M. Brunner—5940
WJun 26 · 02:45H. Tkaczyk—11126113M. Brunner—3101191
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.328670K. Delikatny2.901111113WSep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk1.221111113M. Machelski3.558640WSep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk1.08111110113A. Barton6.43971281WSep 8 · 22:20J. Michalik2.857650H. Tkaczyk1.331111113WSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk1.3611118113A. Krezel2.95441181WSep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk1.0611811113A. Barton6.50711641WSep 8 · 18:20K. Delikatny3.0010650H. Tkaczyk1.331211113LSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771WSep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44139118143J. Skorupa2.631111811122
M. Brunner10
WSep 9 · 02:45M. Brunner1.7771111113A. Krezel1.87118891WSep 9 · 01:10M. Brunner1.2111116113A. Barton3.65591151LSep 9 · 24:20K. Delikatny1.7751111113M. Brunner1.87116391LSep 8 · 23:05M. Brunner1.801111921A. Krezel1.9071311113LSep 8 · 21:30M. Brunner3.257117161H. Tkaczyk1.3011611183WSep 8 · 20:20M. Brunner1.901211113K. Delikatny1.8010460LSep 8 · 18:45M. Brunner2.008790J. Michalik1.671111113WSep 8 · 17:30M. Brunner1.3011311113A. Barton3.40411461WSep 2 · 04:20K. Gudzik1.7275111132M. Brunner1.96111175113WSep 2 · 03:30T. Kordaszewski2.9581090M. Brunner1.321112113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.