TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088264
Played Sep 8Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13119111188111412
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:33 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 108 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 59.9%
108 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 33–14 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 14 of their 47 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tkaczyk beat Skorupa 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-14 in 47
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 19 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1598 vs Skorupa 1341
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 257 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Skorupa 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Skorupa 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +1 · Skorupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.44 / Skorupa 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13088264
Tkaczyk1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Skorupa2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk7wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%7 of 7
AwaySkorupa100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Skorupa3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk6Skorupa4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Tkaczyk5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Tkaczyk4Skorupa4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkaczyk3Skorupa1n = 4Tkaczyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykSkorupaT − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.138.6+3.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime995 / 1493 vs 299 / 62266.6%48.1%995 / 1493 vs 299 / 622Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.44/Skorupa 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—1111143J. Skorupa—96120
WSep 1 · 01:30H. Tkaczyk—111011113J. Skorupa—912791
WAug 31 · 20:05H. Tkaczyk—1111510113J. Skorupa—85111252
LAug 28 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk—812813102J. Skorupa—11101111123
WAug 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—1112113J. Skorupa—81060
LAug 20 · 23:45H. Tkaczyk—9128121J. Skorupa—111011143
WAug 20 · 15:50H. Tkaczyk—1161112113J. Skorupa—71181442
WAug 17 · 21:10H. Tkaczyk—118311113J. Skorupa—71111472
WAug 4 · 23:55H. Tkaczyk—111011113J. Skorupa—712761
LAug 4 · 17:55H. Tkaczyk—311881J. Skorupa—11711113
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik2.5051111113H. Tkaczyk1.50117771WSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak2.63611581H. Tkaczyk1.4411211113LSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120WSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113
J. Skorupa10
WSep 8 · 01:30M. Krutak1.836850J. Skorupa1.831111113LSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772WSep 7 · 22:30A. Kubiak1.73101250J. Skorupa2.001214113LSep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik1.61711811113J. Skorupa2.2011711952LSep 7 · 20:05M. Krutak1.8311811113J. Skorupa1.83511381LSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120LSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591WSep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik1.7391011101J. Skorupa2.0011129123LSep 7 · 15:00A. Kubiak1.6711116113J. Skorupa2.10691181LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111
Upcoming Matches
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——Sep 8 · 21:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——Sep 8 · 22:20H. Tkaczyk—J. Michalik——Sep 8 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——Sep 9 · 24:45H. Tkaczyk—M. Machelski——Sep 9 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 9 · 03:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Brunner——Sep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk—A. Krezel——
J. Skorupa
Nothing scheduled
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