TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088269
Played Sep 7Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111012114811––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 67.2% is still 67.2%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
67.2%
67.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 67.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 14–38 Henryk Tkaczyk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 14 of their 52 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Lewczuk beat Tkaczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-38 in 52
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 24 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1534 vs Tkaczyk 1629
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 60% vs Tkaczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Tkaczyk +3
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 3.00 / Tkaczyk 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13088269
Lewczuk3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 60 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 69
Tkaczyk1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk0%0 of 3
AwayTkaczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Lewczuk3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Lewczuk2Tkaczyk6n = 8Tkaczyk took 6 of 8
S5Lewczuk2Tkaczyk1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukTkaczykL − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.342.5−9.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 962 vs 994 / 149151.7%66.7%497 / 962 vs 994 / 1491Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykLewczuk 3.00/Tkaczyk 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—851151H. Tkaczyk—11117113
LAug 31 · 21:45M. Lewczuk—5650H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LAug 31 · 17:45M. Lewczuk—116161H. Tkaczyk—81111113
LAug 10 · 22:30M. Lewczuk—7129101H. Tkaczyk—111011123
LAug 10 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—131141222H. Tkaczyk—11131110113
WAug 7 · 04:20M. Lewczuk—791111113H. Tkaczyk—11119982
WAug 6 · 18:45M. Lewczuk—911117133H. Tkaczyk—116511112
LJun 26 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—413481H. Tkaczyk—111111113
LJun 26 · 17:10M. Lewczuk—116891H. Tkaczyk—91111113
LJun 23 · 02:00M. Lewczuk—5970H. Tkaczyk—1111113
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102WSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892LSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591LSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281
H. Tkaczyk10
LSep 7 · 22:50M. Krutak2.501111113H. Tkaczyk1.504580WSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak2.6311148692H. Tkaczyk1.448121111113WSep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.441111143J. Skorupa2.6396120WSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik2.25511341H. Tkaczyk1.5711511113LSep 7 · 16:55M. Krutak2.631411116113H. Tkaczyk1.44127131192LSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113
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