TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087005
Played Sep 7Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116115911117––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched — 67.2% is still 67.2%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
67.2%
67.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 67.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 14–38 Henryk Tkaczyk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 14 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:59What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-38 in 52
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 24 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1526 vs Tkaczyk 1681
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Tkaczyk 100%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Tkaczyk 70%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +2 · Tkaczyk +5
Tkaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 3.00 / Tkaczyk 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13087005
Lewczuk3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 60 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 69
Tkaczyk1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 387 of 558
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 300 of 352
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk0%0 of 3
AwayTkaczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Lewczuk3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Lewczuk2Tkaczyk6n = 8Tkaczyk took 6 of 8
S5Lewczuk2Tkaczyk1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukTkaczykL − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.342.5−9.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 956 vs 996 / 149351.7%66.7%494 / 956 vs 996 / 1493Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykLewczuk 3.00/Tkaczyk 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—851151H. Tkaczyk—11117113
LAug 31 · 21:45M. Lewczuk—5650H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LAug 31 · 17:45M. Lewczuk—116161H. Tkaczyk—81111113
LAug 10 · 22:30M. Lewczuk—7129101H. Tkaczyk—111011123
LAug 10 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—131141222H. Tkaczyk—11131110113
WAug 7 · 04:20M. Lewczuk—791111113H. Tkaczyk—11119982
WAug 6 · 18:45M. Lewczuk—911117133H. Tkaczyk—116511112
LJun 26 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—413481H. Tkaczyk—111111113
LJun 26 · 17:10M. Lewczuk—116891H. Tkaczyk—91111113
LJun 23 · 02:00M. Lewczuk—5970H. Tkaczyk—1111113
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241WSep 5 · 15:35A. Krezel2.6041113962H. Tkaczyk1.411131111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 7 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Sep 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 7 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 7 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.36M. Lewczuk3.00—Sep 7 · 22:50H. Tkaczyk1.44M. Krutak2.63—Sep 7 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 8 · 24:50H. Tkaczyk1.44J. Skorupa2.63—Sep 8 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk1.57J. Zelezik2.25—Sep 8 · 18:20H. Tkaczyk—K. Delikatny——Sep 8 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Barton——
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