TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083879
Played Sep 5Finished
Cezary Pawlik
Home
1.94
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116113911115
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.74
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
911116113911115
H2H Cezary Pawlik 6–10 Henryk Tkaczyk Cezary Pawlik has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pawlik 1596 vs Tkaczyk 1652
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pawlik 80% vs Tkaczyk 60%
Pawlik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pawlik 80% vs Tkaczyk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pawlik +1 · Tkaczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.94 / Tkaczyk 1.74
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13083879
Pawlik1.94
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 44 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back14% 7 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Tkaczyk1.74
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 386 of 559
Up 2–0, closes it94% 220 of 234
Up 1–0, closes it85% 298 of 351
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePawlik4wins
AwayTkaczyk6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik75%3 of 4
AwayTkaczyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Pawlik7Tkaczyk3n = 10Pawlik took 7 of 10
S3Pawlik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Pawlik4Tkaczyk5n = 9Tkaczyk took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPawlikTkaczykP − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.237.6−2.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 470 vs 993 / 149558.5%66.4%275 / 470 vs 993 / 1495Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykPawlik 1.94/Tkaczyk 1.74
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 21:35C. Pawlik—511451H. Tkaczyk—11711113
WAug 15 · 15:35C. Pawlik—11912113H. Tkaczyk—9111081
LJul 5 · 24:25C. Pawlik—611641H. Tkaczyk—11711113
LJul 4 · 20:45C. Pawlik—81141192H. Tkaczyk—117118113
WJun 26 · 21:35C. Pawlik—1111163H. Tkaczyk—46140
LJun 26 · 15:35C. Pawlik—4119101H. Tkaczyk—11711123
WJun 21 · 24:45C. Pawlik—61112113H. Tkaczyk—1161041
LJun 20 · 18:45C. Pawlik—251191H. Tkaczyk—11119113
LMar 28 · 24:35C. Pawlik—117871H. Tkaczyk—71111113
WMar 27 · 18:35C. Pawlik—11119113H. Tkaczyk—481191
C. Pawlik10
WSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153LSep 6 · 01:10A. Fomin1.70111188113C. Pawlik1.9558111182LSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113LSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113WSep 5 · 22:00K. Gudzik2.8569131172C. Pawlik1.361111115113WSep 5 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.761511113A. Fomin1.9513690LSep 5 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.428111051K. Gudzik2.6011512113WSep 5 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.461111113A. Krezel2.474940WSep 5 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.83111011113J. Oracz1.83912991WSep 5 · 02:00M. Krutak2.702880C. Pawlik1.421111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241WSep 5 · 15:35A. Krezel2.6041113962H. Tkaczyk1.411131111113WSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113
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