TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13085147
Played Sep 6Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
2.35
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210811114117––
Jacek Oracz
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:59 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeJacek Oracz to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1210811114117––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 23–35 Jacek Oracz Henryk Tkaczyk has won 23 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-35 in 58
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 12 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1662 vs Oracz 1585
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Oracz 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +3 · Oracz -1
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 2.35 / Oracz 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Oracz)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13085147
Tkaczyk2.35
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog53% won 68 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back31% 17 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Oracz1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 302 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it98% 189 of 192
Up 1–0, closes it88% 246 of 281
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk3wins
AwayOracz7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkaczyk2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Tkaczyk4Oracz3n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5Tkaczyk2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykOraczT − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.042.4−7.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime996 / 1495 vs 658 / 91566.6%71.9%996 / 1495 vs 658 / 915Avg sets wonper match2.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczTkaczyk 2.35/Oracz 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk—5760J. Oracz—1111113
LAug 20 · 01:30H. Tkaczyk—119912152J. Oracz—9111110173
WAug 19 · 19:30H. Tkaczyk—5161111123J. Oracz—1114138102
LJul 18 · 22:25H. Tkaczyk—31190J. Oracz—1113113
LJul 18 · 20:00H. Tkaczyk—3370J. Oracz—1111113
LJul 4 · 21:35H. Tkaczyk—71151172J. Oracz—117114113
LJul 4 · 15:35H. Tkaczyk—711831J. Oracz—11711113
LJun 27 · 24:25H. Tkaczyk—412771J. Oracz—111011113
WJun 26 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—133114113J. Oracz—111191192
WJun 16 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk—101111113J. Oracz—124871
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241WSep 5 · 15:35A. Krezel2.6041113962H. Tkaczyk1.411131111113WSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113
J. Oracz10
WSep 6 · 02:20K. Gudzik2.806750J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 5 · 23:35A. Krezel2.65111110113J. Oracz1.40651291WSep 5 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.807590J. Oracz1.851111113WSep 5 · 21:10A. Fomin2.7561090J. Oracz1.401112113WSep 5 · 20:20K. Gudzik2.60117581J. Oracz1.4281111113WSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 17:35A. Krezel2.6097111172J. Oracz1.41111129113WSep 5 · 16:50A. Fomin2.706570J. Oracz1.391111113LSep 5 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.83111011113J. Oracz1.83912991WSep 5 · 02:20A. Zmijewski2.4041311772J. Oracz1.501111811113
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