Measured against the market · last 30 days
Most prediction numbers can't be checked. Ours can.
Every read is published with its denominator and graded when it settles — including the ones we get wrong. A losing match is never removed from the record.
Our signals
61.1%
named the winner across 29,121 matches
The favouriteThe bookmaker's favourite
61.0%
won the same oneswon those same matches
±0.0 pp
A statistical tie
on the same 29,121 matches
That is a statistical tie with the market — and we publish it anyway. Nobody reliably out-predicts these odds; the value here is the analysis underneath, not a promise to beat the bookmaker.
Where these two figures come from: both read the signal call stored on each match, and that call is rebuilt whenever a finished match is re-processed — so neither is a frozen pre-match snapshot. What does not change is which matches are counted: nothing is dropped for losing.
About one in three of what we send to the Pro group also goes out free on Telegram, before first serve.
Open the channelFigures refresh every 30 minutes. Judge the 30- and 90-day windows; shorter ones are noise. Past results do not indicate future results. Information only, not betting advice. 18+, where betting is legal for you.
Signal Performance
2026-08-12 → 2026-09-11 · 31,815 resolved matches
Daily hit rate
match winner, per settled dayThe dashed line is what the bookmaker's favourite did over the same window. Crossing it on a given day is sampling noise at roughly 1,026 matches a day — the 31-day figure is the one that means something. The two are not drawn on identical sets either: the daily line covers every resolved match, the dashed one only those carrying a price.
A different population
Shipped to the Pro group
Everything above covers every resolved match, sent or not. This covers only the 1,349 we sent, summed across every tier the record carries.
1,349
Sent
56.0%
Hit rate
1.70
Avg odds
756 of 1,349 won
A hit rate only means something next to the price. 56.0% on 1,349 picks at average odds of 1.70 — breaking even at that price needs 58.9%. What you make of it depends on which picks you take and how you stake.
By market
what we predicted on every resolved match, against what the price implied
Match winner
Who takes the match
Ours
61.1%
The market
61.0%
Both figures on the same 29,121 matches — those carrying a signal call and a price with a favourite in it. Matches quoted at identical odds on both sides are left out, so this is not the same count as the odds bands below.
First set
Who takes set one
Ours
56.9%
The market
No line
Correct 18,004 of 31,654 resolved
Over / under
Total sets played
Ours
56.0%
The market
No line
Correct 12,588 of 22,489 resolved
Only match winner has a published market counterpart. First set and over/under are hit rates with no reference, so no delta is shown for them.
Where we differ from the price
Loading the disagreement ledger…
By the favourite's odds
bands set by the favourite's price · our hit rate against what the price gave the side we backed
Heavy favourite
Favourite under 1.40
A favourite in this band was priced at 74.3% and won 75.6% of 5,412 — that pair grades the market, not us.
+1.3 pp
Vs our side's price
5,412
Matches
Value
Favourite 1.40 – 1.75
A favourite in this band was priced at 58.6% and won 58.9% of 19,514 — that pair grades the market, not us.
+0.6 pp
Vs our side's price
19,514
Matches
Close
Favourite 1.75 – 2.30
A favourite in this band was priced at 50.9% and won 51.8% of 4,195 — that pair grades the market, not us.
+2.9 pp
Vs our side's price
6,544
Matches
The mark is what the price gave the side WE backed — not the favourite's, because we do not always back the favourite. A hit rate above it is not money: it is an accuracy edge, and an accuracy edge still has to clear the bookmaker's margin before it pays.
By league
match winner only
Setka Cup
Core league
9,763
Matches
TT Elite Series
Core league
9,199
Matches
Czech Liga Pro
Core league
5,944
Matches
TT Cup
Core league
5,262
Matches
Setka Cup Women
Core league
298
Matches
32 low-sample leagues
Under 30 matches each — grouped, so a one-match league can't render as a 0% or a 100%
406
Matches
No per-league market rate is published yet, so no league carries a delta. A hit rate on its own does not say whether that league beat its own prices.
Where these figures come from: the accuracy numbers read the signal call stored on each match, and that call is rebuilt whenever a finished match is re-processed — so we do not claim it is a frozen pre-match snapshot. The Pro-group card is the frozen record: those picks are graded from what was actually sent, at the odds sent.