TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070601
Played Sep 4Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811311611––––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 58.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 27–58 Henryk Tkaczyk Jerzy Michalik has won 27 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:40What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-58 in 85
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 31 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1392 vs Tkaczyk 1729
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 337 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Tkaczyk 100%
Tkaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Tkaczyk 90%
Tkaczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +1 · Tkaczyk +5
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.50 / Tkaczyk 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070601
Michalik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 118 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back18% 33 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Tkaczyk1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 551
Up 2–0, closes it94% 214 of 228
Up 1–0, closes it85% 292 of 344
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik3wins
AwayTkaczyk7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik40%2 of 5
AwayTkaczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Michalik2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Michalik5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Michalik2Tkaczyk7n = 9Tkaczyk took 7 of 9
S5Michalik3Tkaczyk2n = 5Michalik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikTkaczykM − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.044.8−4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 1156 vs 992 / 149446.8%66.4%541 / 1156 vs 992 / 1494Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykMichalik 2.50/Tkaczyk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 24:45J. Michalik—981111102H. Tkaczyk—111198123
LAug 7 · 01:30J. Michalik—1113111062H. Tkaczyk—715812113
LAug 6 · 19:55J. Michalik—1198101H. Tkaczyk—61111123
LAug 5 · 05:05J. Michalik—9101191H. Tkaczyk—11126113
WAug 3 · 23:35J. Michalik—371211113H. Tkaczyk—111110882
LJul 29 · 23:30J. Michalik—511641H. Tkaczyk—11911113
WJul 29 · 19:10J. Michalik—127116113H. Tkaczyk—101181192
LJul 28 · 23:30J. Michalik—76100H. Tkaczyk—1111123
WJul 24 · 01:10J. Michalik—111268123H. Tkaczyk—7101111102
LJul 23 · 17:30J. Michalik—115991H. Tkaczyk—91111113
J. Michalik10
WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241LSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192
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