TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070599
Played Sep 3Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111186111311119
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:41 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 62.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 27–58 Henryk Tkaczyk Jerzy Michalik has won 27 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:41What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-58 in 85
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 31 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1412 vs Tkaczyk 1705
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 293 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Tkaczyk 100%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Tkaczyk 90%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +2 · Tkaczyk +5
Tkaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.38 / Tkaczyk 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070599
Michalik2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 118 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back18% 33 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Tkaczyk1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 551
Up 2–0, closes it94% 214 of 228
Up 1–0, closes it85% 292 of 344
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik3wins
AwayTkaczyk7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik40%2 of 5
AwayTkaczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Michalik2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Michalik5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Michalik2Tkaczyk7n = 9Tkaczyk took 7 of 9
S5Michalik3Tkaczyk2n = 5Michalik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikTkaczykM − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.044.8−4.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 1156 vs 992 / 149446.8%66.4%541 / 1156 vs 992 / 1494Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykMichalik 2.38/Tkaczyk 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 24:45J. Michalik—981111102H. Tkaczyk—111198123
LAug 7 · 01:30J. Michalik—1113111062H. Tkaczyk—715812113
LAug 6 · 19:55J. Michalik—1198101H. Tkaczyk—61111123
LAug 5 · 05:05J. Michalik—9101191H. Tkaczyk—11126113
WAug 3 · 23:35J. Michalik—371211113H. Tkaczyk—111110882
LJul 29 · 23:30J. Michalik—511641H. Tkaczyk—11911113
WJul 29 · 19:10J. Michalik—127116113H. Tkaczyk—101181192
LJul 28 · 23:30J. Michalik—76100H. Tkaczyk—1111123
WJul 24 · 01:10J. Michalik—111268123H. Tkaczyk—7101111102
LJul 23 · 17:30J. Michalik—115991H. Tkaczyk—91111113
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241WSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.