TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065520
Played Sep 3Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511511––––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Jerzy Michalik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 56.8%
48 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 39–48 Jerzy Michalik Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 39 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:13What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-48 in 87
Michalik
Correct
gap of 9 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1528 vs Michalik 1390
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 80% vs Michalik 60%
Lewczuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 90% vs Michalik 50%
Lewczuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +3 · Michalik -1
Lewczuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.83 / Michalik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lewczuk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13065520
Lewczuk1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Michalik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk4wins
AwayMichalik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk100%3 of 3
AwayMichalik85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk3Michalik7n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S2Lewczuk4Michalik6n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S3Lewczuk5Michalik5n = 10split evenly
S4Lewczuk4Michalik3n = 7Lewczuk took 4 of 7
S5Lewczuk2Michalik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukMichalikL − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.2−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 961 vs 539 / 115252.3%46.8%503 / 961 vs 539 / 1152Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.83/Michalik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 23:55M. Lewczuk—811912163J. Michalik—1141110142
WAug 27 · 17:55M. Lewczuk—11611113J. Michalik—911991
WAug 8 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—1411113J. Michalik—12660
LAug 8 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—10670J. Michalik—1211113
LAug 7 · 24:50M. Lewczuk—69111172J. Michalik—111177113
LAug 6 · 17:30M. Lewczuk—8780J. Michalik—1111113
LJun 24 · 22:55M. Lewczuk—1011891J. Michalik—12711113
WJun 24 · 16:55M. Lewczuk—111156113J. Michalik—83111152
LJun 19 · 01:55M. Lewczuk—991381J. Michalik—111111113
LJun 18 · 19:55M. Lewczuk—57121262J. Michalik—11111010113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
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