TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087237
Played Sep 7Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161513116––––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 62 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Michal Guzik at 65.3%
62 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 3–2 Michal Guzik Michal Guzik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Guzik beat Lewczuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1507 vs Guzik 1620
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Guzik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Guzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.50 / Guzik 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Guzik)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13087237
Lewczuk2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 57 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Guzik1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLewczuk3wins
AwayGuzik2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderLewczuk leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk3Guzik2n = 5Lewczuk took 3 of 5
S2Lewczuk2Guzik3n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S3Lewczuk2Guzik3n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S4Lewczuk1Guzik3n = 4Guzik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricLewczukGuzikL − GBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.042.0−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 957 vs 125 / 16951.6%74%494 / 957 vs 125 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikLewczuk 2.50/Guzik 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 6 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—9920M. Guzik—1111113
LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk—111621M. Guzik—81111113
WSep 3 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—151146113M. Guzik—132111172
WAug 18 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—6161110113M. Guzik—111481272
WAug 17 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—11616113M. Guzik—6111491
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
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