TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087115
Played Sep 6Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113114––––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 47 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Michal Guzik at 65.5%
47 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 11–0 Zbigniew Nocun Zbigniew Nocun has won 0 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-0 in 11
Guzik
Correct
gap of 11 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1608 vs Nocun 1496
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Nocun 100%
Nocun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 60% vs Nocun 90%
Nocun
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +3 · Nocun +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.17 / Nocun 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Guzik)+6.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087115
Guzik1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Nocun4.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 81 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back17% 18 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzik10wins
AwayNocun0wins
Guzik leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%8 of 8
AwayNocunn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik8Nocun2n = 10Guzik took 8 of 10
S2Guzik10Nocun0n = 10Guzik took 10 of 10
S3Guzik9Nocun1n = 10Guzik took 9 of 10
S4Guzik3Nocun0n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzikNocunG − NBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.420.7+14.7per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 165 vs 649 / 108273.9%60%122 / 165 vs 649 / 1082Avg sets wonper match2.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.17/Nocun 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik—1111113Z. Nocun—7340
WAug 28 · 24:35M. Guzik—111110113Z. Nocun—651251
WAug 27 · 18:30M. Guzik—1111113Z. Nocun—7830
WAug 21 · 01:25M. Guzik—51111113Z. Nocun—117561
WAug 20 · 19:20M. Guzik—1111113Z. Nocun—7510
WAug 6 · 23:50M. Guzik—1111113Z. Nocun—8520
WAug 6 · 20:30M. Guzik—1111113Z. Nocun—5370
WAug 3 · 02:10M. Guzik—1111113Z. Nocun—3970
WAug 2 · 20:05M. Guzik—1111113Z. Nocun—3580
WJul 20 · 01:25M. Guzik—61111143Z. Nocun—1198121
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
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