TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087116
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115113811117––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 67 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 56.8%
67 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 33–22 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 22 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:33What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-22 in 55
Nocun
Correct
gap of 11 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1519 vs Skorupa 1340
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 100% vs Skorupa 60%
Nocun
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 90% vs Skorupa 60%
Nocun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +5 · Skorupa -2
Nocun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.57 / Skorupa 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Nocun)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087116
Nocun1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 324 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it88% 232 of 265
Skorupa2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 95 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%4 of 4
AwaySkorupa50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S2Nocun3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S3Nocun5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun7Skorupa1n = 8Nocun took 7 of 8
S5Nocun4Skorupa1n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunSkorupaN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.3+1.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime647 / 1078 vs 294 / 60560%48.6%647 / 1078 vs 294 / 605Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.57/Skorupa 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun—11139113J. Skorupa—8111191
WSep 3 · 22:40Z. Nocun—81611123J. Skorupa—11146101
WSep 2 · 23:30Z. Nocun—1110611113J. Skorupa—71211872
LSep 2 · 19:10Z. Nocun—91181172J. Skorupa—117118113
WAug 31 · 21:00Z. Nocun—11513113J. Skorupa—7111151
LAug 31 · 16:35Z. Nocun—10880J. Skorupa—1211113
WAug 30 · 23:20Z. Nocun—841111113J. Skorupa—11117692
WAug 30 · 17:20Z. Nocun—117114113J. Skorupa—91191112
LAug 27 · 21:20Z. Nocun—123100J. Skorupa—1411123
WAug 27 · 15:25Z. Nocun—8101111113J. Skorupa—11127552
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
Nothing scheduled
J. Skorupa6 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
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