TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083144
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11351112101315811
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Skorupa above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 99 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Skorupa 2–2 Grzegorz Mucha Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skorupa beat Mucha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:10What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1369 vs Mucha 1374
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 60% vs Mucha 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 40% vs Mucha 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa -1 · Mucha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mucha)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 1.91 / Mucha 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mucha)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13083144
Skorupa1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 95 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 93
Mucha1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 77 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it100% 39 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSkorupa2wins
AwayMucha2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMucha33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa1Mucha3n = 4Mucha took 3 of 4
S2Skorupa3Mucha1n = 4Skorupa took 3 of 4
S3Skorupa3Mucha1n = 4Skorupa took 3 of 4
S4Skorupa2Mucha2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSkorupaMuchaS − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match39.239.20.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 613 vs 125 / 25148.5%49.8%297 / 613 vs 125 / 251Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaSkorupa 1.91/Mucha 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa—115121382G. Mucha—3111015113
WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa—51111113G. Mucha—116791
WJul 8 · 22:35J. Skorupa—91111113G. Mucha—115991
LJul 8 · 15:00J. Skorupa—411671G. Mucha—11711113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133
Upcoming Matches
J. Skorupa6 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
G. Mucha
Nothing scheduled
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