TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083145
Played Sep 6Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012118114711511
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 63.2%
90 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 11–1 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lewczuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-1 in 12
Lewczuk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1496 vs Mucha 1375
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Mucha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Mucha 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -2 · Mucha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.44 / Mucha 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Lewczuk)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13083145
Lewczuk1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 164 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it95% 102 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it84% 123 of 146
Mucha2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk9wins
AwayMucha1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk100%4 of 4
AwayMucha16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk7Mucha3n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk8Mucha2n = 10Lewczuk took 8 of 10
S4Lewczuk6Mucha2n = 8Lewczuk took 6 of 8
S5Lewczuk4Mucha1n = 5Lewczuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukMuchaL − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.637.2+6.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 957 vs 124 / 25051.6%49.6%494 / 957 vs 124 / 250Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.44/Mucha 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk—101111752G. Mucha—128411113
WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—841111143G. Mucha—111174122
WAug 17 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—4131011113G. Mucha—111112932
WAug 17 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—1211113G. Mucha—10850
WAug 16 · 02:35M. Lewczuk—1111113G. Mucha—8670
WAug 15 · 18:10M. Lewczuk—1141011123G. Mucha—811126102
WAug 8 · 23:20M. Lewczuk—101111113G. Mucha—126851
WAug 8 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—81111153G. Mucha—1155131
WAug 3 · 21:45M. Lewczuk—81111123G. Mucha—1157101
WAug 3 · 17:45M. Lewczuk—117119123G. Mucha—511911102
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
G. Mucha
Nothing scheduled
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