TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087142
Played Sep 7Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511116117311119
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 85 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 57.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 15–34 Zbigniew Nocun Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 15 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Lewczuk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:29What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-34 in 49
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 19 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1496 vs Nocun 1488
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 20% vs Nocun 40%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 40% vs Nocun 60%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -3 · Nocun +1
Lewczuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.00 / Nocun 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087142
Lewczuk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 57 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Nocun1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 324 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it88% 232 of 265
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk1wins
AwayNocun9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk20%1 of 5
AwayNocun100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S2Lewczuk1Nocun9n = 10Nocun took 9 of 10
S3Lewczuk2Nocun8n = 10Nocun took 8 of 10
S4Lewczuk4Nocun3n = 7Lewczuk took 4 of 7
S5Lewczuk1Nocun4n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukNocunL − NBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.441.6−8.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 957 vs 650 / 108551.6%59.9%494 / 957 vs 650 / 1085Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunLewczuk 2.00/Nocun 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—9370Z. Nocun—1111113
WSep 1 · 24:30M. Lewczuk—118711113Z. Nocun—71111582
LAug 31 · 18:55M. Lewczuk—2650Z. Nocun—1111113
LJun 18 · 01:30M. Lewczuk—11661172Z. Nocun—711117113
LJun 17 · 19:30M. Lewczuk—119111142Z. Nocun—131129113
LMay 6 · 03:30M. Lewczuk—11461372Z. Nocun—9111111113
LMay 5 · 21:55M. Lewczuk—813891Z. Nocun—111111113
LMar 21 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—3870Z. Nocun—1111113
LMar 21 · 17:50M. Lewczuk—11711852Z. Nocun—511811113
LJan 1 · 05:40M. Lewczuk—115571Z. Nocun—61111113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
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Z. Nocun
Nothing scheduled
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