Zbigniew Nocun vs Jacek Zelezik 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082155

Played Sep 6Finished

Zbigniew Nocun

Home

1.67

At publish

Won last 6

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 6

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

113911119911116

Jacek Zelezik

Away

2.10

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%

Graded at full time

Zbigniew Nocun to win

60.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Jacek Zelezik below

Set 1 · 11-3

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 11-6

Point 91 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 60.8%

91 points played in total.

H2H Zbigniew Nocun 26–13 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 13 of their 39 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 10:59

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Nocun

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

26-13 in 39

Nocun

Correct

gap of 13 in 39, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Nocun 1503 vs Zelezik 1414

Nocun

Correct

both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Nocun 100% vs Zelezik 60%

Nocun

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Nocun 80% vs Zelezik 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Nocun +5 · Zelezik +1

Nocun

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Zelezik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNocun 1.67 / Zelezik 2.10

Signal prob.57% / 43%

Edge (Nocun)+1.6pp

TT Elite Series · #13082155

Nocun1.67

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 6

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite67% won 324 of 487

Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163

Up 1–0, closes it88% 232 of 265

Zelezik2.10

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog45% won 89 of 200

Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 112

Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNocun6wins

AwayZelezik4wins

2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNocun100%6 of 6

AwayZelezik100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Nocun6Zelezik4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10

S2Nocun7Zelezik3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10

S3Nocun4Zelezik6n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10

S4Nocun3Zelezik5n = 8Zelezik took 5 of 8

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away440%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricNocunZelezikN − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.637.4−0.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNocunZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1077 vs 354 / 65760%53.9%646 / 1077 vs 354 / 657Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Nocun

Nocun 1.67/Zelezik 2.10

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

57.4%

Nocun · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Nocun won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 4 · 03:05Z. Nocun—1111113J. Zelezik—7990

LSep 3 · 21:05Z. Nocun—611881J. Zelezik—11711113

WAug 27 · 01:45Z. Nocun—117116113J. Zelezik—91141192

WAug 26 · 16:15Z. Nocun—1111133J. Zelezik—85110

LAug 19 · 03:55Z. Nocun—6111191J. Zelezik—11713113

WAug 18 · 21:55Z. Nocun—115911123J. Zelezik—811118102

LJul 23 · 04:40Z. Nocun—611761J. Zelezik—11711113

LJul 22 · 22:40Z. Nocun—711741J. Zelezik—11911113

WJul 8 · 01:55Z. Nocun—11211113J. Zelezik—911781

WJul 7 · 19:55Z. Nocun—11117113J. Zelezik—881171

Z. Nocun10

LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113 LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192 WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113 LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113 LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143 LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113 WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113 LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340 WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171 WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191

J. Zelezik10

WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111 WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391 LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113 WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281 LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113 LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132 WSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133 WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442 WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562 WSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192

Upcoming Matches

Z. Nocun

Nothing scheduled

J. Zelezik4 of 10 neutral

Sep 7 · 15:50J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 19:40J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——

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