TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083151
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101187111113911
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:12 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 103 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 61.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 7–2 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:12What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1512 vs Mucha 1365
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 80% vs Mucha 20%
Nocun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 90% vs Mucha 40%
Nocun
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +1 · Mucha -4
Mucha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.50 / Mucha 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Nocun)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13083151
Nocun1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 324 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it88% 232 of 265
Mucha2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayMucha2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderNocun leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%5 of 5
AwayMucha50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun5Mucha4n = 9Nocun took 5 of 9
S2Nocun6Mucha3n = 9Nocun took 6 of 9
S3Nocun8Mucha1n = 9Nocun took 8 of 9
S4Nocun3Mucha1n = 4Nocun took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricNocunMuchaN − MBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match36.329.9+6.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime649 / 1081 vs 121 / 24660%49.2%649 / 1081 vs 121 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.50/Mucha 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 12 · 15:25Z. Nocun—11811113G. Mucha—411691
WAug 2 · 21:45Z. Nocun—71111113G. Mucha—119671
WAug 2 · 17:45Z. Nocun—1113113G. Mucha—51170
WJul 10 · 24:35Z. Nocun—1111113G. Mucha—1360
LJul 9 · 18:30Z. Nocun—6690G. Mucha—1111113
WJun 28 · 22:10Z. Nocun—1311113G. Mucha—11880
WJun 28 · 19:40Z. Nocun—491111113G. Mucha—11117972
LJun 22 · 24:10Z. Nocun—81111492G. Mucha—118711113
WJun 21 · 20:30Z. Nocun—1111113G. Mucha—7670
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133
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