TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087226
Played Sep 6Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119911511––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 57.4%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 13–26 Zbigniew Nocun Jacek Zelezik has won 13 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:01What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-26 in 39
Nocun
Correct
gap of 13 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1429 vs Nocun 1478
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 60% vs Nocun 20%
Zelezik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 50% vs Nocun 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +1 · Nocun -3
Nocun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nocun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 2.10 / Nocun 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Nocun)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13087226
Zelezik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Nocun1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 324 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it88% 232 of 265
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik4wins
AwayNocun6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik100%4 of 4
AwayNocun100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S2Zelezik3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Zelezik6Nocun4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S4Zelezik5Nocun3n = 8Zelezik took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikNocunZ − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.6+0.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 664 vs 649 / 108453.9%59.9%358 / 664 vs 649 / 1084Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunZelezik 2.10/Nocun 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 03:05J. Zelezik—7990Z. Nocun—1111113
WSep 3 · 21:05J. Zelezik—11711113Z. Nocun—611881
LAug 27 · 01:45J. Zelezik—91141192Z. Nocun—117116113
LAug 26 · 16:15J. Zelezik—85110Z. Nocun—1111133
WAug 19 · 03:55J. Zelezik—11713113Z. Nocun—6111191
LAug 18 · 21:55J. Zelezik—811118102Z. Nocun—115911123
WJul 23 · 04:40J. Zelezik—11711113Z. Nocun—611761
WJul 22 · 22:40J. Zelezik—11911113Z. Nocun—711741
LJul 8 · 01:55J. Zelezik—911781Z. Nocun—11211113
LJul 7 · 19:55J. Zelezik—881171Z. Nocun—11117113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132WSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
Upcoming Matches
J. Zelezik4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:50J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 19:40J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——
Z. Nocun
Nothing scheduled
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