TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087225
Played Sep 6Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191151012118––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 11–10 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:01What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1414 vs Lewczuk 1521
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 60% vs Lewczuk 40%
Zelezik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 50% vs Lewczuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik -2 · Lewczuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 1.80 / Lewczuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zelezik)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13087225
Zelezik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite70% won 176 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it96% 104 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it82% 137 of 167
Lewczuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 57 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik6wins
AwayLewczuk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik66.7%2 of 3
AwayLewczuk42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik3Lewczuk7n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S2Zelezik5Lewczuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Zelezik6Lewczuk4n = 10Zelezik took 6 of 10
S4Zelezik5Lewczuk2n = 7Zelezik took 5 of 7
S5Zelezik2Lewczuk1n = 3Zelezik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikLewczukZ − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.538.1−1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 663 vs 495 / 95753.9%51.7%357 / 663 vs 495 / 957Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikZelezik 1.80/Lewczuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Zelezik—97131132M. Lewczuk—1111119113
LSep 2 · 21:45J. Zelezik—4560M. Lewczuk—1111113
WSep 2 · 17:45J. Zelezik—861113173M. Lewczuk—1111711152
WAug 20 · 23:55J. Zelezik—1111812113M. Lewczuk—17111472
WAug 20 · 17:55J. Zelezik—71111113M. Lewczuk—114751
WAug 20 · 01:45J. Zelezik—61111123M. Lewczuk—1199101
WAug 19 · 16:15J. Zelezik—41115113M. Lewczuk—1171381
WJun 27 · 02:20J. Zelezik—1114113M. Lewczuk—51270
LJun 26 · 20:20J. Zelezik—118571M. Lewczuk—51111113
LJun 20 · 23:45J. Zelezik—7400M. Lewczuk—1111113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132WSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Zelezik4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:50J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 19:40J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
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