TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087118
Played Sep 6Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119112––––
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 53 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Michal Guzik at 54.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 2–3 Miroslaw Lewczuk Michal Guzik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:33What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1608 vs Lewczuk 1530
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Lewczuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 50% vs Lewczuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +2 · Lewczuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.50 / Lewczuk 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Guzik)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13087118
Guzik1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Lewczuk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 57 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGuzik2wins
AwayLewczuk3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderLewczuk leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLewczuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik2Lewczuk3n = 5Lewczuk took 3 of 5
S2Guzik3Lewczuk2n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S3Guzik3Lewczuk2n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S4Guzik3Lewczuk1n = 4Guzik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricGuzikLewczukG − LBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.037.0+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 165 vs 496 / 95773.9%51.8%122 / 165 vs 496 / 957Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.50/Lewczuk 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik—1111113M. Lewczuk—9920
WSep 4 · 01:45M. Guzik—81111113M. Lewczuk—111621
LSep 3 · 16:15M. Guzik—132111172M. Lewczuk—151146113
LAug 18 · 01:10M. Guzik—111481272M. Lewczuk—6161110113
LAug 17 · 16:15M. Guzik—6111491M. Lewczuk—11616113
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
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