TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083146
Played Sep 6Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117113––––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 49 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 58.6%
49 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 4–1 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:11What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Guzik
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1618 vs Mucha 1378
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 241 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 80% vs Mucha 40%
Guzik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Mucha 50%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +2 · Mucha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.20 / Mucha 4.33
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Guzik)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13083146
Guzik1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Mucha4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 43 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGuzik4wins
AwayMucha1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderGuzik leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%3 of 3
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik3Mucha2n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S2Guzik4Mucha1n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S3Guzik5Mucha0n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricGuzikMuchaG − MBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.825.8+10.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 166 vs 123 / 24874.1%49.6%123 / 166 vs 123 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.20/Mucha 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik—111143G. Mucha—2520
WAug 17 · 22:30M. Guzik—1113113G. Mucha—61130
WAug 17 · 15:00M. Guzik—61111123G. Mucha—1167101
LAug 2 · 22:35M. Guzik—115111172G. Mucha—131183113
WAug 2 · 15:00M. Guzik—1111113G. Mucha—6860
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.