TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087210
Played Sep 7Finished
Jacek Zelezik
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111171513119––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 85 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Guzik at 67.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 2–3 Michal Guzik Jacek Zelezik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zelezik beat Guzik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1419 vs Guzik 1640
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 40% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 50% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik -1 · Guzik +4
Guzik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Guzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 2.63 / Guzik 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Guzik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087210
Zelezik2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Guzik1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZelezik2wins
AwayGuzik3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderGuzik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik66.7%2 of 3
AwayGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik3Guzik2n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
S2Zelezik0Guzik5n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S3Zelezik3Guzik2n = 5Zelezik took 3 of 5
S4Zelezik3Guzik1n = 4Zelezik took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricZelezikGuzikZ − GBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match34.839.8−5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 665 vs 125 / 16853.8%74.4%358 / 665 vs 125 / 168Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikZelezik 2.63/Guzik 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 6 · 18:55J. Zelezik—14611133M. Guzik—12115111
LAug 3 · 22:00J. Zelezik—9780M. Guzik—1111113
LAug 3 · 18:00J. Zelezik—561271M. Guzik—111110113
LJul 30 · 23:45J. Zelezik—11121132M. Guzik—611117113
WJul 30 · 15:50J. Zelezik—111111153M. Guzik—7135131
J. Zelezik10
WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132WSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Zelezik4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:50J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 19:40J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
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