TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087111
Played Sep 6Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141165111113––
Jacek Zelezik
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 83 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Jacek Zelezik at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 3–1 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:31What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Guzik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1617 vs Zelezik 1417
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 80% vs Zelezik 60%
Guzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Zelezik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +4 · Zelezik +2
Guzik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.44 / Zelezik 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13087111
Guzik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Zelezik2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGuzik3wins
AwayZelezik1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderGuzik leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik2Zelezik2n = 4split evenly
S2Guzik4Zelezik0n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
S3Guzik2Zelezik2n = 4split evenly
S4Guzik1Zelezik2n = 3Zelezik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGuzikZelezikG − ZBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match40.032.5+7.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 163 vs 356 / 66074.2%53.9%121 / 163 vs 356 / 660Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.44/Zelezik 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 3 · 22:00M. Guzik—1111113J. Zelezik—9780
WAug 3 · 18:00M. Guzik—111110113J. Zelezik—561271
WJul 30 · 23:45M. Guzik—611117113J. Zelezik—11121132
LJul 30 · 15:50M. Guzik—7135131J. Zelezik—111111153
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
J. Zelezik10
WSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111WSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391LSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113WSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113LSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132WSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442WSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
J. Zelezik4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:50J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 19:40J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Zelezik—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 23:30J. Zelezik—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Zelezik—A. Kubiak——Sep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik—H. Tkaczyk——
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