TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065511
Played Sep 4Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118111611211––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 61 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 3–0 Michal Guzik Michal Guzik has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Lewczuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1525 vs Guzik 1562
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Guzik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 60% vs Guzik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Guzik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.75 / Guzik 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13065511
Lewczuk2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 57 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 64
Guzik1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 105 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLewczuk3wins
AwayGuzik0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderLewczuk leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk2Guzik1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
S2Lewczuk2Guzik1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
S3Lewczuk2Guzik1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
S4Lewczuk1Guzik2n = 3Guzik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLewczukGuzikL − GBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match48.345.3+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 965 vs 117 / 15952.3%73.6%505 / 965 vs 117 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikLewczuk 2.75/Guzik 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 3 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—151146113M. Guzik—132111172
WAug 18 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—6161110113M. Guzik—111481272
WAug 17 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—11616113M. Guzik—6111491
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
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