TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082142
Played Sep 6Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118116––––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:48 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Skorupa at 55.4%
52 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 5–5 Jakub Skorupa Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:48What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1514 vs Skorupa 1357
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 157 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Skorupa 80%
Skorupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Skorupa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Skorupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.73 / Skorupa 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Lewczuk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082142
Lewczuk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 164 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it95% 102 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it84% 123 of 146
Skorupa2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 95 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk5wins
AwaySkorupa5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk80%4 of 5
AwaySkorupa80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Lewczuk6Skorupa4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S3Lewczuk6Skorupa4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk2Skorupa4n = 6Skorupa took 4 of 6
S5Lewczuk1Skorupa2n = 3Skorupa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukSkorupaL − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.7+0.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 966 vs 294 / 60452.3%48.7%505 / 966 vs 294 / 604Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.73/Skorupa 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 22:30M. Lewczuk—81111113J. Skorupa—119831
WAug 31 · 15:00M. Lewczuk—1271114113J. Skorupa—101181672
LJun 18 · 23:55M. Lewczuk—81111992J. Skorupa—119911113
LJun 18 · 17:55M. Lewczuk—91111692J. Skorupa—114911113
WJun 18 · 03:55M. Lewczuk—1114113J. Skorupa—71260
WJun 17 · 21:55M. Lewczuk—1113113J. Skorupa—81190
LMay 5 · 23:30M. Lewczuk—114731J. Skorupa—61111113
LMay 5 · 19:10M. Lewczuk—712110J. Skorupa—1114133
WMar 21 · 02:35M. Lewczuk—11115113J. Skorupa—781181
LMar 20 · 20:35M. Lewczuk—9970J. Skorupa—1111113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
J. Skorupa6 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
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