TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087325
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111412611511––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:30 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 59.0%
73 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 33–22 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 22 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-22 in 55
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 11 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1486 vs Skorupa 1369
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 40% vs Skorupa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Skorupa 50%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Skorupa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nocun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.67 / Skorupa 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Nocun)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087325
Nocun1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 324 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it88% 232 of 265
Skorupa2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 95 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwaySkorupa3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun100%4 of 4
AwaySkorupa50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S2Nocun3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S3Nocun5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun7Skorupa1n = 8Nocun took 7 of 8
S5Nocun4Skorupa1n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunSkorupaN − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.740.3+1.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime649 / 1083 vs 296 / 61059.9%48.5%649 / 1083 vs 296 / 610Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.67/Skorupa 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun—11139113J. Skorupa—8111191
WSep 3 · 22:40Z. Nocun—81611123J. Skorupa—11146101
WSep 2 · 23:30Z. Nocun—1110611113J. Skorupa—71211872
LSep 2 · 19:10Z. Nocun—91181172J. Skorupa—117118113
WAug 31 · 21:00Z. Nocun—11513113J. Skorupa—7111151
LAug 31 · 16:35Z. Nocun—10880J. Skorupa—1211113
WAug 30 · 23:20Z. Nocun—841111113J. Skorupa—11117692
WAug 30 · 17:20Z. Nocun—117114113J. Skorupa—91191112
LAug 27 · 21:20Z. Nocun—123100J. Skorupa—1411123
WAug 27 · 15:25Z. Nocun—8101111113J. Skorupa—11127552
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
Upcoming Matches
Z. Nocun
Nothing scheduled
J. Skorupa6 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
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