TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083152
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Skorupa
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511116117119––
Grzegorz Mucha
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Skorupa above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Skorupa 2–1 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorupa 1365 vs Mucha 1380
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorupa 20% vs Mucha 40%
Mucha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorupa 50% vs Mucha 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorupa -4 · Mucha -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mucha)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorupa 1.83 / Mucha 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mucha)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13083152
Skorupa1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Mucha1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkorupa2wins
AwayMucha1wins
Skorupa leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorupan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMucha33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorupa0Mucha3n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
S2Skorupa3Mucha0n = 3Skorupa took 3 of 3
S3Skorupa2Mucha1n = 3Skorupa took 2 of 3
S4Skorupa2Mucha1n = 3Skorupa took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkorupaMuchaS − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match36.035.7+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorupaMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 608 vs 122 / 24748.5%49.4%295 / 608 vs 122 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaSkorupa 1.83/Mucha 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skorupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa—51111113G. Mucha—116791
WJul 8 · 22:35J. Skorupa—91111113G. Mucha—115991
LJul 8 · 15:00J. Skorupa—411671G. Mucha—11711113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113LSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
G. Mucha10
WSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113WSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:00J. Zelezik2.209460G. Mucha1.611111113WSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:35J. Zelezik2.20711711113G. Mucha1.6111811562LSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 6 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.91114118112G. Mucha1.80911611133
Upcoming Matches
J. Skorupa6 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
G. Mucha
Nothing scheduled
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