TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087441
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119511116118––
Jakub Skorupa
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Guzik at 62.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 13–2 Jakub Skorupa Jakub Skorupa has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Guzik beat Skorupa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:01What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-2 in 15
Guzik
Correct
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1631 vs Skorupa 1377
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 254 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 80% vs Skorupa 60%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Skorupa 50%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik +3 · Skorupa +2
Guzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.20 / Skorupa 4.33
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Guzik)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13087441
Guzik1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Skorupa4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 95 of 285
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzik9wins
AwaySkorupa1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGuzik leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzik100%4 of 4
AwaySkorupa16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik4Skorupa6n = 10Skorupa took 6 of 10
S2Guzik5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Guzik8Skorupa2n = 10Guzik took 8 of 10
S4Guzik6Skorupa1n = 7Guzik took 6 of 7
S5Guzik4Skorupa0n = 4Guzik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzikSkorupaG − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.233.5+6.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 167 vs 297 / 61174.3%48.6%124 / 167 vs 297 / 611Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.20/Skorupa 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik—1081111113J. Skorupa—12116762
WAug 27 · 22:55M. Guzik—113128113J. Skorupa—211101142
WAug 27 · 16:55M. Guzik—11911113J. Skorupa—611661
WAug 23 · 24:10M. Guzik—21115123J. Skorupa—11913101
WAug 22 · 20:30M. Guzik—251111173J. Skorupa—111153152
WAug 20 · 22:55M. Guzik—1211113J. Skorupa—10550
WAug 20 · 16:55M. Guzik—81111113J. Skorupa—113851
WAug 7 · 24:50M. Guzik—911911113J. Skorupa—11811552
WAug 6 · 19:20M. Guzik—1111113J. Skorupa—9810
LJul 26 · 01:35M. Guzik—3790J. Skorupa—1111113
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
J. Skorupa10
LSep 7 · 02:35J. Zelezik1.7311117133J. Skorupa2.009911111LSep 7 · 01:25J. Skorupa1.91115121382G. Mucha1.803111015113WSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113WSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113LSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762WSep 6 · 19:20J. Skorupa1.8351111113G. Mucha1.83116791LSep 6 · 18:10J. Zelezik1.67461111113J. Skorupa2.1011116442LSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171LSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
Upcoming Matches
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
J. Skorupa6 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:00J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 16:35J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 17:20J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 7 · 19:20J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 20:05J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 21:00J. Skorupa—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 22:30J. Skorupa—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 23:10J. Skorupa—M. Lewczuk——Sep 8 · 24:50J. Skorupa—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Skorupa—M. Krutak——
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