TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087106
Played Sep 6Finished
Zbigniew Nocun
Home
5.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9118111214––––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.14
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 65 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Michal Guzik at 86.8%
65 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 0–11 Michal Guzik Zbigniew Nocun has won 0 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-11 in 11
Guzik
Correct
gap of 11 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1496 vs Guzik 1608
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Guzik 80%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 80% vs Guzik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -1 · Guzik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Guzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 5.00 / Guzik 1.14
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Guzik)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13087106
Nocun5.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog42% won 81 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back17% 18 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Guzik1.14
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 110 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun0wins
AwayGuzik10wins
Guzik leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocunn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGuzik100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun2Guzik8n = 10Guzik took 8 of 10
S2Nocun0Guzik10n = 10Guzik took 10 of 10
S3Nocun1Guzik9n = 10Guzik took 9 of 10
S4Nocun0Guzik3n = 3Guzik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunGuzikN − GBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match20.735.4−14.7per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime649 / 1082 vs 122 / 16560%73.9%649 / 1082 vs 122 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.22.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikNocun 5.00/Guzik 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:45Z. Nocun—7340M. Guzik—1111113
LAug 28 · 24:35Z. Nocun—651251M. Guzik—111110113
LAug 27 · 18:30Z. Nocun—7830M. Guzik—1111113
LAug 21 · 01:25Z. Nocun—117561M. Guzik—51111113
LAug 20 · 19:20Z. Nocun—7510M. Guzik—1111113
LAug 6 · 23:50Z. Nocun—8520M. Guzik—1111113
LAug 6 · 20:30Z. Nocun—5370M. Guzik—1111113
LAug 3 · 02:10Z. Nocun—3970M. Guzik—1111113
LAug 2 · 20:05Z. Nocun—3580M. Guzik—1111113
LJul 20 · 01:25Z. Nocun—1198121M. Guzik—61111143
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113WSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580WSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
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