TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087112
Played Sep 6Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311711––––
Zbigniew Nocun
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 66.4% is still 66.4%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
66.4%
66.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 66.4%
52 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 14–33 Zbigniew Nocun Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 14 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-33 in 47
Nocun
Correct
gap of 19 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1526 vs Nocun 1496
Lewczuk
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 60% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +1 · Nocun -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Nocun) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.10 / Nocun 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Nocun)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087112
Lewczuk2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 57 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back18% 19 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 66
Nocun1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 324 of 487
Up 2–0, closes it96% 156 of 163
Up 1–0, closes it88% 232 of 265
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk2wins
AwayNocun8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk20%1 of 5
AwayNocun80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S2Lewczuk3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S4Lewczuk4Nocun4n = 8split evenly
S5Lewczuk1Nocun4n = 5Nocun took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukNocunL − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.942.2−6.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 956 vs 648 / 108051.9%60%496 / 956 vs 648 / 1080Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NocunLewczuk 2.10/Nocun 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 18:55M. Lewczuk—2650Z. Nocun—1111113
LJun 18 · 01:30M. Lewczuk—11661172Z. Nocun—711117113
LJun 17 · 19:30M. Lewczuk—119111142Z. Nocun—131129113
LMay 6 · 03:30M. Lewczuk—11461372Z. Nocun—9111111113
LMay 5 · 21:55M. Lewczuk—813891Z. Nocun—111111113
LMar 21 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—3870Z. Nocun—1111113
LMar 21 · 17:50M. Lewczuk—11711852Z. Nocun—511811113
LJan 1 · 05:40M. Lewczuk—115571Z. Nocun—61111113
WDec 31 · 23:40M. Lewczuk—111368113Z. Nocun—811111192
WDec 26 · 02:10M. Lewczuk—101111113Z. Nocun—125771
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.731111113J. Skorupa2.005860LSep 4 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.75111621M. Guzik1.4081111113
Z. Nocun10
LSep 7 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.5011115962G. Mucha2.50581111113LSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192WSep 6 · 23:45J. Zelezik2.10811951Z. Nocun1.6711911113LSep 6 · 22:55Z. Nocun1.67514651J. Skorupa2.10111211113LSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143LSep 6 · 20:05Z. Nocun1.50121171192G. Mucha2.501081113113LSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:55Z. Nocun1.5711118113J. Skorupa2.25531171WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun1.67119119113J. Zelezik2.1031191162WSep 4 · 04:40Z. Nocun1.5311139113J. Skorupa2.298111191
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
Z. Nocun
Nothing scheduled
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