TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065254
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611611911––
Jerzy Michalik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Machelski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Jerzy Michalik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Michal Machelski at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 23–54 Jerzy Michalik Michal Machelski has won 23 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-54 in 77
Michalik
Correct
gap of 31 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1363 vs Michalik 1322
Machelski
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 60% vs Michalik 20%
Machelski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 60% vs Michalik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -1 · Michalik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.10 / Michalik 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Michalik)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13065254
Machelski2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 120 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 120
Michalik1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 151 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski4wins
AwayMichalik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski75%3 of 4
AwayMichalik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski4Michalik6n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S2Machelski6Michalik4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S3Machelski3Michalik7n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S4Machelski3Michalik4n = 7Michalik took 4 of 7
S5Machelski2Michalik1n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiMichalikMachelski − MichalikBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.037.9−0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 1126 vs 535 / 114736.9%46.6%415 / 1126 vs 535 / 1147Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMachelski 2.10/Michalik 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.2%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 05:10M. Machelski—1111113J. Michalik—7990
WJul 24 · 01:55M. Machelski—9131111113J. Michalik—111113182
LJul 23 · 19:55M. Machelski—11111171J. Michalik—81313113
LJul 22 · 02:20M. Machelski—412981J. Michalik—111011113
LJul 20 · 07:35M. Machelski—5770J. Michalik—1111113
WJul 10 · 01:30M. Machelski—11111011113J. Michalik—51312572
LJul 9 · 19:30M. Machelski—511891J. Michalik—11711113
LJul 6 · 03:10M. Machelski—511391J. Michalik—11611113
LJul 3 · 01:30M. Machelski—58111172J. Michalik—111179113
WJul 2 · 19:30M. Machelski—1111113J. Michalik—4960
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
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