TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090411
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111210711119115
Michal Wolny
Away
1.68
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:48 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Wolny to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
7111210711119115
H2H Michal Machelski 7–15 Michal Wolny Michal Machelski has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Wolny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-15 in 22
Wolny
Wrong
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1328 vs Wolny 1355
Wolny
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 60% vs Wolny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Wolny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +2 · Wolny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Wolny) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.05 / Wolny 1.68
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Wolny)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13090411
Machelski2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 120
Wolny1.68
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 62 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it86% 49 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski2wins
AwayWolny8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWolny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski33.3%1 of 3
AwayWolny85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski3Wolny7n = 10Wolny took 7 of 10
S2Machelski3Wolny7n = 10Wolny took 7 of 10
S3Machelski6Wolny4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S4Machelski3Wolny5n = 8Wolny took 5 of 8
S5Machelski1Wolny3n = 4Wolny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiWolnyM − WBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.242.9−5.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiWolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 1136 vs 273 / 57037%47.9%420 / 1136 vs 273 / 570Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WolnyMachelski 2.05/Wolny 1.68
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Wolny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski—712711113M. Wolny—111011952
LJul 27 · 08:20M. Machelski—11911782M. Wolny—911811113
LJul 20 · 08:45M. Machelski—781151M. Wolny—11117113
LMay 18 · 22:00M. Machelski—81350M. Wolny—1115113
WApr 3 · 05:05M. Machelski—1111143M. Wolny—97120
LFeb 16 · 05:00M. Machelski—118871M. Wolny—91111113
LJan 29 · 01:45M. Machelski—211411122M. Wolny—119119143
LJan 22 · 24:30M. Machelski—310111442M. Wolny—1112912113
LNov 29 · 02:10M. Machelski—7911101M. Wolny—11116123
LNov 28 · 20:10M. Machelski—891141M. Wolny—11114113
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113LSep 3 · 20:05M. Machelski2.203390A. Krezel1.611111113
M. Wolny10
LSep 7 · 08:45A. Zmijewski1.451111113M. Wolny2.508480WSep 7 · 07:35M. Wolny1.3381111113A. Barton3.10119861LSep 7 · 05:10W. Stechly5.20117119113M. Wolny1.1281151172WSep 7 · 03:35J. Slawomir1.85111011862M. Wolny1.85512711113LSep 4 · 04:20J. Zelezik1.58911126113M. Wolny2.25116101192WSep 4 · 03:30A. Barton4.258170M. Wolny1.191111113WSep 4 · 02:45M. Wolny1.64711117113A. Staniczek2.1411381112LSep 4 · 01:10M. Wolny1.831011411122J. Skorupa1.87129111143LSep 4 · 24:20Z. Nocun1.50111011123M. Wolny2.355125101WSep 3 · 23:05M. Wolny1.5281111113A. Staniczek2.30114041
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