TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090305
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
1.19
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1189111012117119
Aleksander Barton
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:37 and never touched — 74.2% is still 74.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Machelski to win
74.2%
74.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1189111012117119
H2H Michal Machelski 22–2 Aleksander Barton Aleksander Barton has won 2 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:37What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.19 (77%)
Machelski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-2 in 24
Machelski
Correct
gap of 20 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1327 vs Barton 1029
Machelski
Correct
both rated, 299 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 40% vs Barton 0%
Machelski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 30% vs Barton 0%
Machelski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski +1 · Barton -5
Barton
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Machelski) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 1.19 / Barton 4.00
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Machelski)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13090305
Machelski1.19
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 95 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it81% 69 of 85
Barton4.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog15% won 33 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back5% 8 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski10wins
AwayBarton0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMachelski leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski100%6 of 6
AwayBarton0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski6Barton4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S2Machelski6Barton4n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S3Machelski8Barton2n = 10Machelski took 8 of 10
S4Machelski7Barton1n = 8Machelski took 7 of 8
S5Machelski3Barton0n = 3Machelski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiBartonM − BBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.134.7+8.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 1132 vs 81 / 37636.9%21.5%418 / 1132 vs 81 / 376Avg sets wonper match1.71.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.231.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachelskiMachelski 1.19/Barton 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.4%
Machelski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 24:00M. Machelski—111111113A. Barton—651371
WAug 27 · 03:05M. Machelski—111012113A. Barton—9121041
WAug 6 · 01:30M. Machelski—1112113A. Barton—71030
WAug 5 · 19:30M. Machelski—871111153A. Barton—111199132
WJul 28 · 24:00M. Machelski—1111113A. Barton—8660
WJul 21 · 24:00M. Machelski—91112113A. Barton—1131051
WJul 16 · 03:55M. Machelski—51111113A. Barton—117761
WJul 15 · 21:55M. Machelski—11911113A. Barton—811651
WJul 14 · 24:00M. Machelski—511511153A. Barton—117118132
WJul 10 · 24:20M. Machelski—128119143A. Barton—1011411122
M. Machelski10
WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113LSep 3 · 20:05M. Machelski2.203390A. Krezel1.611111113LSep 3 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.6771111113M. Machelski2.10116861WSep 3 · 17:45M. Guzik1.253111061M. Machelski3.7511912113LSep 3 · 16:55M. Machelski2.50610100H. Tkaczyk1.501112123
A. Barton10
LSep 7 · 05:35J. Slawomir1.121191110133A. Barton5.10411312112LSep 7 · 03:10A. Zmijewski1.101111113A. Barton5.605560LSep 4 · 05:05A. Barton2.90791181A. Staniczek1.3511114113LSep 4 · 03:30A. Barton4.258170M. Wolny1.191111113LSep 4 · 02:20A. Barton6.506450Z. Nocun1.071111113LSep 4 · 24:45A. Barton6.505780J. Zelezik1.071111113LSep 3 · 23:30A. Barton4.1275100J. Skorupa1.201111123LSep 2 · 04:40A. Fomin1.091111113A. Barton5.857790LSep 2 · 03:55H. Tkaczyk1.04151111133A. Barton8.101776111LSep 2 · 01:55K. Gudzik1.241311123A. Barton3.80115100
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