TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13053487
Played Sep 2Finished
Henryk Tkaczyk
Home
1.04
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
15171171161311––
Aleksander Barton
Away
8.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 75.4% is still 75.4%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
75.4%
75.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
15171171161311––
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 13–1 Aleksander Barton Aleksander Barton has won 1 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:56What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.04 (89%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-1 in 14
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 12 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1660 vs Barton 1066
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 595 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Barton 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 90% vs Barton 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +3 · Barton -2
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) is below what odds imply (96%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.04 / Barton 8.10
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13053487
Tkaczyk1.04
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 375 of 551
Up 2–0, closes it93% 210 of 225
Up 1–0, closes it84% 288 of 342
Barton8.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog16% won 32 of 203
Down 0–1, comes back5% 8 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk9wins
AwayBarton1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk100%9 of 9
AwayBartonn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk9Barton1n = 10Tkaczyk took 9 of 10
S2Tkaczyk8Barton2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Tkaczyk5Barton5n = 10split evenly
S4Tkaczyk6Barton0n = 6Tkaczyk took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykBartonT − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.830.0+9.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime982 / 1483 vs 81 / 36866.2%22%982 / 1483 vs 81 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.41.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.631.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.04/Barton 8.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.2%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 19:55H. Tkaczyk—111112113A. Barton—841491
WAug 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk—1151812113A. Barton—711201072
WJul 16 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk—111111113A. Barton—591341
WJul 15 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk—1111113A. Barton—8570
LJul 10 · 01:10H. Tkaczyk—52111132A. Barton—111156113
WJul 9 · 17:30H. Tkaczyk—1111133A. Barton—31110
WJun 18 · 21:45H. Tkaczyk—1111123A. Barton—67100
WJun 18 · 17:45H. Tkaczyk—11119113A. Barton—391191
WFeb 18 · 02:10H. Tkaczyk—111110113A. Barton—731281
WFeb 17 · 18:30H. Tkaczyk—1111113A. Barton—7620
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241WSep 5 · 15:35A. Krezel2.6041113962H. Tkaczyk1.411131111113
A. Barton10
LSep 7 · 05:35J. Slawomir1.121191110133A. Barton5.10411312112LSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792LSep 7 · 03:10A. Zmijewski1.101111113A. Barton5.605560LSep 4 · 05:05A. Barton2.90791181A. Staniczek1.3511114113LSep 4 · 03:30A. Barton4.258170M. Wolny1.191111113LSep 4 · 02:20A. Barton6.506450Z. Nocun1.071111113LSep 4 · 24:45A. Barton6.505780J. Zelezik1.071111113LSep 3 · 23:30A. Barton4.1275100J. Skorupa1.201111123LSep 2 · 04:40A. Fomin1.091111113A. Barton5.857790LSep 2 · 01:55K. Gudzik1.241311123A. Barton3.80115100
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