TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070569
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511311311––
Henryk Tkaczyk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:41 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 64 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 63.3%
64 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 20–65 Henryk Tkaczyk Michal Machelski has won 20 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-65 in 85
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 45 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1334 vs Tkaczyk 1691
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 357 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Tkaczyk 80%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 30% vs Tkaczyk 90%
Tkaczyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -3 · Tkaczyk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.50 / Tkaczyk 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070569
Machelski2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 120 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 120
Tkaczyk1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 551
Up 2–0, closes it94% 214 of 228
Up 1–0, closes it85% 292 of 344
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski3wins
AwayTkaczyk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Machelski2Tkaczyk8n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S3Machelski3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Machelski3Tkaczyk4n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiTkaczykM − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.740.0−5.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 1133 vs 990 / 149236.7%66.4%416 / 1133 vs 990 / 1492Avg sets wonper match1.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykMachelski 2.50/Tkaczyk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 16:55M. Machelski—610100H. Tkaczyk—1112123
LAug 23 · 22:55M. Machelski—4101171H. Tkaczyk—11128113
LAug 23 · 16:55M. Machelski—9115121H. Tkaczyk—11811143
LJul 24 · 04:20M. Machelski—171161H. Tkaczyk—11118113
LJul 23 · 18:45M. Machelski—8980H. Tkaczyk—1111113
LJul 15 · 23:30M. Machelski—118791H. Tkaczyk—41111113
WJul 15 · 19:10M. Machelski—311811123H. Tkaczyk—119116102
WJul 10 · 04:40M. Machelski—11811113H. Tkaczyk—611851
LJul 9 · 22:40M. Machelski—18580H. Tkaczyk—2011113
WJul 6 · 08:45M. Machelski—1110413123H. Tkaczyk—5121111102
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113LSep 3 · 20:05M. Machelski2.203390A. Krezel1.611111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 6 · 02:45A. Fomin3.3081180H. Tkaczyk1.271113113WSep 6 · 01:35H. Tkaczyk2.3512811113J. Oracz1.531011471WSep 6 · 24:25C. Pawlik2.201481171H. Tkaczyk1.6016117113WSep 5 · 23:10K. Gudzik3.159880H. Tkaczyk1.291111113WSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.94911119113H. Tkaczyk1.7411631152LSep 5 · 19:35H. Tkaczyk2.005760J. Oracz1.661111113WSep 5 · 18:25A. Fomin3.40611961H. Tkaczyk1.2611711113LSep 5 · 17:10K. Gudzik3.5011811113H. Tkaczyk1.25811241WSep 5 · 15:35A. Krezel2.6041113962H. Tkaczyk1.411131111113
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