TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088549
Played Sep 7Finished
Witold Stechly
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911911––––
Michal Machelski
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:12 and never touched — 65.0% is still 65.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Machelski to win
65.0%
65.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
611911911––––
H2H Witold Stechly 7–19 Michal Machelski Witold Stechly has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Machelski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-19 in 26
Machelski
Correct
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stechly 1097 vs Machelski 1321
Machelski
Correct
both rated, 224 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stechly 0% vs Machelski 20%
Machelski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stechly 20% vs Machelski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stechly -5 · Machelski -2
Stechly
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Machelski) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (20%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStechly 4.00 / Machelski 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Machelski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13088549
Stechly4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog19% won 45 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back11% 17 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 107
Machelski1.22
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 94 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 68 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStechly3wins
AwayMachelski7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMachelski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStechly60%3 of 5
AwayMachelski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stechly5Machelski5n = 10split evenly
S2Stechly1Machelski9n = 10Machelski took 9 of 10
S3Stechly5Machelski5n = 10split evenly
S4Stechly3Machelski5n = 8Machelski took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStechlyMachelskiS − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.6−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStechlyMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 523 vs 417 / 113116.1%36.9%84 / 523 vs 417 / 1131Avg sets wonper match1.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match32.935.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MachelskiStechly 4.00/Machelski 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Machelski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 02:55W. Stechly—1111881M. Machelski—13911113
LAug 6 · 02:20W. Stechly—139881M. Machelski—111111113
WJul 27 · 06:00W. Stechly—11611113M. Machelski—711681
LJul 24 · 24:45W. Stechly—4470M. Machelski—1111113
WJul 20 · 05:10W. Stechly—11911113M. Machelski—911961
LJul 16 · 01:55W. Stechly—91011101M. Machelski—11128123
LJul 6 · 04:25W. Stechly—11781192M. Machelski—711116113
WJul 3 · 02:20W. Stechly—113116113M. Machelski—91121182
LJun 29 · 08:20W. Stechly—1141251M. Machelski—131110113
LJun 24 · 23:55W. Stechly—8760M. Machelski—1111113
W. Stechly10
LSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102WSep 7 · 05:10W. Stechly5.20117119113M. Wolny1.1281151172LSep 3 · 04:20W. Stechly9.255670M. Warzecha1.021111113LSep 3 · 03:05W. Stechly3.40941161K. Gudzik1.2511116113LSep 3 · 01:55W. Stechly3.95311621J. Skorupa1.2011811113LSep 3 · 24:45Z. Nocun1.12117912123W. Stechly4.958111110102LSep 2 · 23:55W. Stechly2.19981481A. Staniczek1.61111112113LAug 31 · 09:10W. Stechly2.05118781D. Maszczynski1.7071111113WAug 31 · 07:50W. Stechly4.3011411113J. Slawomir1.16611631WAug 31 · 06:50W. Stechly2.111411113T. Kordaszewski1.6212890
M. Machelski10
WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113LSep 3 · 20:05M. Machelski2.203390A. Krezel1.611111113LSep 3 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.6771111113M. Machelski2.10116861WSep 3 · 17:45M. Guzik1.253111061M. Machelski3.7511912113LSep 3 · 16:55M. Machelski2.50610100H. Tkaczyk1.501112123
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