TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070600
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111191012611––
Michal Machelski
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:41 and never touched — 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Michal Machelski below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 77.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 2–3 Michal Machelski Michal Guzik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1592 vs Machelski 1366
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 226 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 80% vs Machelski 40%
Guzik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Machelski 40%
Guzik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -1 · Machelski -3
Machelski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Guzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.25 / Machelski 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Guzik)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070600
Guzik1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 105 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Machelski3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 120 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGuzik2wins
AwayMachelski3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderMachelski leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMachelski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik2Machelski3n = 5Machelski took 3 of 5
S2Guzik3Machelski2n = 5Guzik took 3 of 5
S3Guzik4Machelski1n = 5Guzik took 4 of 5
S4Guzik1Machelski3n = 4Machelski took 3 of 4
S5Guzik1Machelski2n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricGuzikMachelskiG − MBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match43.242.0+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 153 vs 416 / 112974.5%36.9%114 / 153 vs 416 / 1129Avg sets wonper match2.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.235.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.25/Machelski 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.4%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 3 · 17:45M. Guzik—3111061M. Machelski—11912113
WAug 2 · 23:20M. Guzik—1251411113M. Machelski—141112532
WAug 2 · 17:20M. Guzik—1111113M. Machelski—5480
LJul 25 · 21:10M. Guzik—714116112M. Machelski—1112611133
LJul 25 · 16:50M. Guzik—119131172M. Machelski—6111113113
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113
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