TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070594
Played Sep 3Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11138111181113––
Michal Machelski
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Michal Machelski below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 86 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Jerzy Michalik at 55.2%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 54–23 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 23 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:40What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Machelski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-23 in 77
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 31 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1387 vs Machelski 1346
Michalik
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Machelski 20%
Michalik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Machelski 30%
Michalik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -1 · Machelski -4
Machelski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.83 / Machelski 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13070594
Michalik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Machelski1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik6wins
AwayMachelski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik83.3%5 of 6
AwayMachelski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik6Machelski4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S2Michalik4Machelski6n = 10Machelski took 6 of 10
S3Michalik7Machelski3n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S4Michalik4Machelski3n = 7Michalik took 4 of 7
S5Michalik1Machelski2n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikMachelskiMichalik − MachelskiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.937.0+0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 1155 vs 417 / 113446.8%36.8%540 / 1155 vs 417 / 1134Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.83/Machelski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 05:10J. Michalik—7990M. Machelski—1111113
LJul 24 · 01:55J. Michalik—111113182M. Machelski—9131111113
WJul 23 · 19:55J. Michalik—81313113M. Machelski—11111171
WJul 22 · 02:20J. Michalik—111011113M. Machelski—412981
WJul 20 · 07:35J. Michalik—1111113M. Machelski—5770
LJul 10 · 01:30J. Michalik—51312572M. Machelski—11111011113
WJul 9 · 19:30J. Michalik—11711113M. Machelski—511891
WJul 6 · 03:10J. Michalik—11611113M. Machelski—511391
WJul 3 · 01:30J. Michalik—111179113M. Machelski—58111172
LJul 2 · 19:30J. Michalik—4960M. Machelski—1111113
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113LSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
M. Machelski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.