TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065516
Played Sep 3Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11851191116141315
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:14 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Miroslaw Lewczuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 16-14
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 113 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 56.8%
113 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 48–39 Miroslaw Lewczuk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 39 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-39 in 87
Michalik
Wrong
gap of 9 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1418 vs Lewczuk 1520
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 80% vs Lewczuk 60%
Michalik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Lewczuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +2 · Lewczuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.91 / Lewczuk 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Lewczuk)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13065516
Michalik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 118 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back18% 33 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Lewczuk1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 165 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it95% 105 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik6wins
AwayLewczuk4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMichalik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik85.7%6 of 7
AwayLewczuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik7Lewczuk3n = 10Michalik took 7 of 10
S2Michalik6Lewczuk4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S3Michalik5Lewczuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Michalik3Lewczuk4n = 7Lewczuk took 4 of 7
S5Michalik2Lewczuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikLewczukM − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.4+1.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikLewczukBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 1153 vs 503 / 96246.8%52.3%540 / 1153 vs 503 / 962Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukMichalik 1.91/Lewczuk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 23:55J. Michalik—1141110142M. Lewczuk—811912163
LAug 27 · 17:55J. Michalik—911991M. Lewczuk—11611113
LAug 8 · 22:10J. Michalik—12660M. Lewczuk—1411113
WAug 8 · 19:40J. Michalik—1211113M. Lewczuk—10670
WAug 7 · 24:50J. Michalik—111177113M. Lewczuk—69111172
WAug 6 · 17:30J. Michalik—1111113M. Lewczuk—8780
WJun 24 · 22:55J. Michalik—12711113M. Lewczuk—1011891
LJun 24 · 16:55J. Michalik—83111152M. Lewczuk—111156113
WJun 19 · 01:55J. Michalik—111111113M. Lewczuk—991381
WJun 18 · 19:55J. Michalik—11111010113M. Lewczuk—57121262
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360WSep 7 · 24:35M. Lewczuk2.00511113113Z. Nocun1.7311671192LSep 6 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.44101111752G. Mucha2.63128411113LSep 6 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.80111110113M. Lewczuk1.91951281LSep 6 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.57114141222J. Skorupa2.255111214113WSep 6 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.911111119113J. Zelezik1.8097131132LSep 6 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.109370Z. Nocun1.671111113WSep 6 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.44841111143G. Mucha2.63111174122LSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113WSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
M. Lewczuk4 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 16:15M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——Sep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 7 · 22:10M. Lewczuk—J. Zelezik——Sep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk—J. Skorupa——Sep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk—M. Krutak——Sep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—A. Kubiak——
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