TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070633
Played Sep 4Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511116115118––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 68 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Guzik at 75.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 2–3 Michal Guzik Jerzy Michalik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Guzik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1372 vs Guzik 1582
Guzik
Wrong
both rated, 210 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Guzik 60%
Guzik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 50% vs Guzik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -2 · Guzik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Guzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 3.40 / Guzik 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 76%
Edge (Guzik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13070633
Michalik3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 118 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back18% 33 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Guzik1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 105 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMichalik2wins
AwayGuzik3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderGuzik leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik40%2 of 5
AwayGuzikn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik5Guzik0n = 5Michalik took 5 of 5
S2Michalik3Guzik2n = 5Michalik took 3 of 5
S3Michalik0Guzik5n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S4Michalik0Guzik5n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S5Michalik2Guzik1n = 3Michalik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMichalikGuzikM − GBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match41.847.4−5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime540 / 1155 vs 117 / 15846.8%74.1%540 / 1155 vs 117 / 158Avg sets wonper match1.92.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikMichalik 3.40/Guzik 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.5%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 3 · 18:55J. Michalik—1111613102M. Guzik—891115123
WAug 4 · 24:45J. Michalik—111148113M. Guzik—99111172
LJul 30 · 22:55J. Michalik—129631M. Guzik—101111113
LJul 30 · 16:55J. Michalik—1112641M. Guzik—51411113
WJul 28 · 01:30J. Michalik—131358113M. Guzik—1111111172
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
M. Guzik
Nothing scheduled
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