TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065525
Played Sep 3Finished
Jerzy Michalik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
41112101151412––
Andrzej Krezel
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Krezel to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Andrzej Krezel below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 79 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Andrzej Krezel at 61.2%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 1–0 Andrzej Krezel Andrzej Krezel has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:13What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1336 vs Krezel 1424
Krezel
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Krezel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 50% vs Krezel 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +1 · Krezel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krezel) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.73 / Krezel 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krezel)+7.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13065525
Michalik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 151 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 144
Krezel2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 43 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back9% 8 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMichalik1wins
AwayKrezel0wins
Michalik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMichalikKrezelM − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match45.039.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime536 / 1148 vs 57 / 19246.7%29.7%536 / 1148 vs 57 / 192Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.334.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelMichalik 1.73/Krezel 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 26 · 05:05J. Michalik—111112113A. Krezel—7131091
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113LSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik1.22891115123J. Michalik4.001111613102WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
A. Krezel10
LSep 6 · 02:00A. Krezel2.754611131C. Pawlik1.3711117153LSep 6 · 24:45A. Krezel2.256660K. Gudzik1.551111113WSep 5 · 23:35A. Krezel2.65111110113J. Oracz1.40651291WSep 5 · 22:25A. Fomin1.8711621192A. Krezel1.80511117113LSep 5 · 21:35A. Krezel2.705138101H. Tkaczyk1.39111111123LSep 5 · 20:00A. Krezel1.907830A. Fomin1.801111113WSep 5 · 18:45A. Krezel2.0012115113K. Gudzik1.711081151LSep 5 · 17:35A. Krezel2.6097111172J. Oracz1.41111129113LSep 5 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.461111113A. Krezel2.474940LSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
A. Krezel1 of 2 neutral
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