TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070598
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Guzik
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81191111615131210
Jerzy Michalik
Away
4.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:41 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Guzik above · Jerzy Michalik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 106 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Michal Guzik at 79.4%
106 points played in total.
H2H Michal Guzik 3–2 Jerzy Michalik Jerzy Michalik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:41What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzik 1597 vs Michalik 1367
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzik 60% vs Michalik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzik 70% vs Michalik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzik -2 · Michalik +3
Michalik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Guzik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzik 1.22 / Michalik 4.00
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Guzik)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13070598
Guzik1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 105 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Michalik4.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 118 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back18% 33 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeGuzik3wins
AwayMichalik2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderGuzik leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzikn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMichalik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzik0Michalik5n = 5Michalik took 5 of 5
S2Guzik2Michalik3n = 5Michalik took 3 of 5
S3Guzik5Michalik0n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S4Guzik5Michalik0n = 5Guzik took 5 of 5
S5Guzik1Michalik2n = 3Michalik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricGuzikMichalikG − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match47.441.8+5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzikMichalikBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 154 vs 538 / 115174.7%46.7%115 / 154 vs 538 / 1151Avg sets wonper match2.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikGuzik 1.22/Michalik 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.8%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 3 · 18:55M. Guzik—891115123J. Michalik—1111613102
LAug 4 · 24:45M. Guzik—99111172J. Michalik—111148113
WJul 30 · 22:55M. Guzik—101111113J. Michalik—129631
WJul 30 · 16:55M. Guzik—51411113J. Michalik—1112641
LJul 28 · 01:30M. Guzik—1111111172J. Michalik—131358113
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580
J. Michalik10
LSep 4 · 02:35J. Michalik2.508360H. Tkaczyk1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Michalik3.4051111113M. Guzik1.30116581LSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:10J. Michalik1.91115916132M. Lewczuk1.808111114153WSep 3 · 21:00J. Michalik1.571214113A. Krezel2.25101280WSep 3 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.835550J. Michalik1.831111113WSep 3 · 18:10J. Michalik2.38811613113H. Tkaczyk1.53118111192WSep 3 · 16:35J. Michalik1.7341211143A. Krezel2.0011105121WSep 3 · 15:50M. Machelski2.10116691J. Michalik1.6791111113LSep 1 · 01:10J. Michalik1.80113661M. Lewczuk1.9151111113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Michalik1 of 1 neutral
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