TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070503
Played Sep 3Finished
Michal Machelski
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117911511511––
Michal Guzik
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched — 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Guzik to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Michal Guzik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Michal Guzik at 77.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 3–3 Michal Guzik Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Guzik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1341 vs Guzik 1590
Guzik
Correct
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Guzik 40%
Guzik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 40% vs Guzik 70%
Guzik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -2 · Guzik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Guzik) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzik form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 3.50 / Guzik 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Guzik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13070503
Machelski3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 120 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 120
Guzik1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite77% won 105 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it90% 78 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMachelski3wins
AwayGuzik3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski50%2 of 4
AwayGuzikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski4Guzik2n = 6Machelski took 4 of 6
S2Machelski2Guzik4n = 6Guzik took 4 of 6
S3Machelski1Guzik5n = 6Guzik took 5 of 6
S4Machelski3Guzik2n = 5Machelski took 3 of 5
S5Machelski2Guzik1n = 3Machelski took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMachelskiGuzikM − GBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.042.7−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiGuzikBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 1132 vs 116 / 15636.8%74.4%416 / 1132 vs 116 / 156Avg sets wonper match1.72.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzikMachelski 3.50/Guzik 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Guzik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Guzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski—119551M. Guzik—71111113
WSep 3 · 17:45M. Machelski—11912113M. Guzik—3111061
LAug 2 · 23:20M. Machelski—141112532M. Guzik—1251411113
LAug 2 · 17:20M. Machelski—5480M. Guzik—1111113
WJul 25 · 21:10M. Machelski—1112611133M. Guzik—714116112
WJul 25 · 16:50M. Machelski—6111113113M. Guzik—119131172
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 20:05M. Machelski2.203390A. Krezel1.611111113
M. Guzik10
LSep 7 · 01:45M. Lewczuk2.501115113M. Guzik1.5061360LSep 7 · 01:00J. Zelezik2.6381115113M. Guzik1.441171391WSep 7 · 24:10M. Guzik1.2011511113J. Skorupa4.33911681WSep 6 · 22:35M. Guzik1.201111113G. Mucha4.336730WSep 6 · 21:45Z. Nocun5.0098120M. Guzik1.141111143WSep 6 · 20:30M. Guzik1.201081111113J. Skorupa4.3312116762LSep 6 · 18:55M. Guzik1.4412115111J. Zelezik2.6314611133WSep 6 · 17:45M. Guzik1.171111113Z. Nocun4.507340WSep 6 · 16:15M. Guzik1.501111113M. Lewczuk2.509920WSep 6 · 15:00M. Guzik1.221111113G. Mucha4.002580
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