TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090405
Played Sep 7Finished
Artur Zmijewski
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411113118114––
Michal Machelski
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:47 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
411113118114––
H2H Artur Zmijewski 4–2 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Zmijewski
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1508 vs Machelski 1337
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 60% vs Machelski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 70% vs Machelski 40%
Zmijewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +1 · Machelski +3
Machelski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Zmijewski) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machelski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.45 / Machelski 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Zmijewski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13090405
Zmijewski1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite70% won 47 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Machelski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back17% 34 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeZmijewski4wins
AwayMachelski2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderZmijewski leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMachelski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski2Machelski4n = 6Machelski took 4 of 6
S2Zmijewski4Machelski2n = 6Zmijewski took 4 of 6
S3Zmijewski3Machelski3n = 6split evenly
S4Zmijewski3Machelski1n = 4Zmijewski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricZmijewskiMachelskiZ − MBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match38.233.8+4.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 109 vs 420 / 113559.6%37%65 / 109 vs 420 / 1135Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.45/Machelski 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski—41111113M. Machelski—113841
WAug 30 · 23:45A. Zmijewski—11117113M. Machelski—971171
WAug 30 · 15:50A. Zmijewski—8111611113M. Machelski—11818582
LAug 23 · 23:45A. Zmijewski—86100M. Machelski—1111123
WAug 23 · 15:50A. Zmijewski—1111113M. Machelski—7290
LAug 11 · 24:00A. Zmijewski—51211101M. Machelski—11144123
A. Zmijewski10
WSep 7 · 06:00A. Zmijewski1.091111117123W. Stechly5.90136711102LSep 7 · 04:25A. Zmijewski1.54111061282J. Slawomir2.354121110113WSep 7 · 03:10A. Zmijewski1.101111113A. Barton5.605560LSep 5 · 02:20A. Zmijewski2.4041311772J. Oracz1.501111811113WSep 5 · 24:45M. Krutak2.70471191A. Zmijewski1.3911117113WSep 5 · 24:00D. Pyrek2.313450A. Zmijewski1.521111113WSep 4 · 23:10A. Zmijewski1.461111133A. Kubiak2.4748110WSep 4 · 22:00A. Zmijewski1.701191211113C. Pawlik1.9551114772WSep 4 · 20:20A. Zmijewski1.801510117113J. Oracz1.90131291192LSep 4 · 18:45M. Krutak2.10311712113A. Zmijewski1.60118111072
M. Machelski10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113LSep 4 · 02:10M. Machelski2.256720A. Krezel1.571111113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Lewczuk1.83111195113M. Machelski1.8379111182WSep 3 · 23:45J. Michalik1.8311811111M. Machelski1.8313118133LSep 3 · 22:55M. Machelski2.50115331H. Tkaczyk1.5091111113LSep 3 · 21:45M. Machelski3.50119551M. Guzik1.2871111113LSep 3 · 20:05M. Machelski2.203390A. Krezel1.611111113
Upcoming Matches
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