TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065523
Played Sep 3Finished
Miroslaw Lewczuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116118116––
Michal Machelski
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Michal Machelski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 63.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 51–16 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 16 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-16 in 67
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 35 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1511 vs Machelski 1361
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 80% vs Machelski 40%
Lewczuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 90% vs Machelski 40%
Lewczuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +2 · Machelski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Lewczuk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.67 / Machelski 2.10
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lewczuk)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13065523
Lewczuk1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite70% won 165 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it95% 105 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it83% 126 of 151
Machelski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 120 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk6wins
AwayMachelski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk50%3 of 6
AwayMachelski25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Machelski4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk7Machelski3n = 10Lewczuk took 7 of 10
S3Lewczuk5Machelski5n = 10split evenly
S4Lewczuk3Machelski6n = 9Machelski took 6 of 9
S5Lewczuk3Machelski2n = 5Lewczuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukMachelskiL − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.938.6+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime504 / 964 vs 417 / 113452.3%36.8%504 / 964 vs 417 / 1134Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.67/Machelski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 22 · 22:25M. Lewczuk—11118113M. Machelski—511111
LJun 19 · 24:45M. Lewczuk—111179142M. Machelski—561111163
LJun 16 · 24:25M. Lewczuk—1081181M. Machelski—12118113
WJun 15 · 20:45M. Lewczuk—91111113M. Machelski—118941
WJun 8 · 22:25M. Lewczuk—111178113M. Machelski—66111172
WJun 1 · 21:35M. Lewczuk—9111211113M. Machelski—11714862
WMay 26 · 24:45M. Lewczuk—1011119113M. Machelski—12571172
LMay 19 · 02:20M. Lewczuk—118421M. Machelski—81111113
LMay 12 · 24:45M. Lewczuk—11911952M. Machelski—911811113
WMay 5 · 24:45M. Lewczuk—1111113M. Machelski—8980
M. Lewczuk10
LSep 8 · 01:10M. Lewczuk1.80681191A. Kubiak1.9111119113LSep 8 · 24:10M. Lewczuk2.0091080M. Krutak1.731112113WSep 7 · 23:10M. Lewczuk1.534101411113J. Skorupa2.38111212772LSep 7 · 22:10J. Zelezik1.73111147123M. Lewczuk2.00681111102LSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk3.006101181H. Tkaczyk1.3611124113WSep 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.00591111113J. Zelezik1.7311119892LSep 7 · 18:30M. Lewczuk2.2091111932M. Krutak1.61117811113WSep 7 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.57101111113J. Skorupa2.25128591LSep 7 · 16:15A. Kubiak1.73111389113M. Lewczuk2.00411111132WSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk3.0011119113H. Tkaczyk1.36651171
M. Machelski10
LSep 8 · 02:20M. Machelski1.868860A. Krezel1.801111113WSep 8 · 24:45M. Karpiuk1.80146118112M. Machelski1.911211711133LSep 8 · 24:00J. Michalik1.601111113M. Machelski2.107750LSep 7 · 23:10M. Machelski1.9516150A. Staniczek1.751811113LSep 7 · 22:00M. Machelski3.656670M. Warzecha1.211111113LSep 7 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.6511711113M. Machelski2.10811591LSep 7 · 07:10A. Zmijewski1.4541111113M. Machelski2.50113841WSep 7 · 06:25M. Machelski2.05712711113M. Wolny1.68111011952WSep 7 · 04:50M. Machelski1.191191011113A. Barton4.0081112792WSep 7 · 04:00W. Stechly4.006990M. Machelski1.221111113
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